You take a quiz with six multiple-choice questions. After you studied, you estimated that you would have an 80% chance of getting any individual question right. What are your chances of getting them all right, assuming that one hard question does not confuse you and cause you to miss others?
A friend of yours took a multiple-choice quiz and got all six questions right, but now claims to have guessed on every question. If each question offers four possible answers, do you believe her? Explain why you either believe her or not.
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