Using the forecast verification data in Table 8.2, we can calculate the likelihoods (i.e., conditional probabilities for each of the 12 possible forecasts, given either precipitation or no...

Using the forecast verification data in Table 8.2, we can calculate the likelihoods (i.e., conditional probabilities for each of the 12 possible forecasts, given either precipitation or no precipitation) in Table 14.2. The unconditional probability of precipitation is p(o₁) = 0.162. Considering the two precipitation outcomes as two groups to be discriminated between, calculate the posterior probabilities of precipitation if the forecast probability, y_i, is

a. 0.00

b. 0.10

c. 1.00