This subject is epidemiology. A coursework assessment. There are two parts in this assessment 1st part topic is about the respiratory tract infection outbreak modelling and 2nd part topic is cholera epidemic in yemen.
I have samples on how to do this coursework and powerpoint notes. the topics and questions in the example are similar. the topic of the sample is Eyam.
BMS3073 Assessed Coursework Test: Data analysis and outbreak modelling Part 1 – Respiratory tract infection outbreak modelling A novel strain of a respiratory virus arises in the UK from a single infectious case. There is no vaccine and the entire population is susceptible. The R0 value of the virus is four. People are infectious for one day, and become immune the following day. Prior to the outbreak (Day 0) one infected individual arrives in the UK On Day 1 of the outbreak four people are infected. The individual from the previous day is now immune. Create a model of the outbreak using the effective reproduction number (R). Assume a UK population of 64,000,000. You need to calculate the daily number of susceptible; infected, and immune people until there is no further increase in the number of infected cases. Question 1) How many people are infected on Day 6 (to 1 decimal place)? (5 marks) Question 2) On what day does the number of immune people exceed 100,000? (5 marks) Question 3) On what day of the outbreak do infected cases reach a peak? (5 marks) Question 4) On what day did the R value fall below 3.0? (5 marks) Question 5) If there had been a vaccine for the disease, what is the minimum percentage of the population that should have been vaccinated to prevent an outbreak? (I.e. what is the herd immunity threshold?) (10 marks) Question 6) Briefly explain two limitations of the model in predicting what would happen in a real scenario. (10 marks) Note – numerical values for the questions 2-5 should be whole numbers Part 2 - Cholera epidemic in Yemen. This scenario is a factual summary of real events and data from the cholera epidemic in Yemen. Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Middle East. Since 2011 the Yemen has been in a state of severe political upheaval, and since 2014-5 the country descended into a state of civil war. Cases of cholera appeared in September 2016 and the following month an outbreak of the disease was declared. Most cases have been concentrated in the western regions of the country. Background information Population of Yemen = 27 500 000 Causative pathogen: Vibrio cholera Serotype 01, serotype Ogawa Cause of outbreak: most likely due to bombing of sewer systems, causing pollution to drinking water supplies. Also, bombing of sewage treatment plants. Bombing of clinics, hospitals, and water supplies has prevented the outbreak from being brought under control. Food imports have also been blocked. Map of Yemen, showing the 18 regions (governorates) of the country. The 11 governorates that were affected by the outbreak in October 2016 are marked in red and yellow. You will need to open the Excel file called “Yemen cholera outbreak” for this section. Question 7) How could you be confident, even in the absence of any results from laboratory analysis at the very start of the outbreak, that the infection was cholera rather than dysentery? Give one reason why the disease could be identified as cholera, and one reason why dysentery could by ruled out. (10 marks) Question 8) In the first month of the outbreak, October 2016, there were 1800 recorded cases of cholera, of which 5 cases died. What is the case fatality rate? (5 marks) Question 9) During November 2017, there were 73086 cholera cases, of which 33 died. What is the case fatality rate, to 2 decimal places? (5 marks) Question 10) Provide one reason why the case fatality rate decreased between 2016 and 2017? (5 marks) Question 11) Across the entire nation of Yemen there have been 1,080,000 cases of cholera since the epidemic began. Calculate the national attack rate per 10,000 people. (10 marks) Question 12) Briefly discuss how useful the national attack rate is for medical aid organisations trying to manage cholera cases in Yemen in the current outbreak. (5 marks) Question 13) Plot a graph of the frequency of cholera cases per month, and select the corresponding graph from the choice below. (10 marks) Question 14) The graph produced for the previous question shows an escalation of the outbreak part way through. What are the two most likely risk factors that caused this? (10 marks) a) Cholera entering the food chain b) Malnutrition c) Lack of antibiotics d) Increased rainfall e) Emergence of antibiotic-resistant strains Note – round all numerical values for the questions above to one decimal place (1.d.p), unless otherwise indicated