Answer To: Specialist Mathematics 2019 v1.2 Instrument-specific marking guide (IA1) Page 1Specialist...
Komalavalli answered on Oct 24 2021
Let us being the discussion about the population of rabbit and wolf in a particular place based on the dataset obtained from Whitman College for the period of 90 years period from 1845-1935 – why 90 years : various climatic and environmental factors had necessitated to observe the data for 90 years.
From the above population table of wolf and rabbit we can observe that at initial stage rabbit population was higher than wolf population and at end of the 90 years wolf population was higher than rabbit population. We are going to compared the growth rate of above organism and the fecundity rate proportionate to the survival rate for better comparison and consultation to obtain a near trivial solution for the study. Now we can look into the population pattern of both the animals with the help of graph.
Population growth pattern of rabbit for the period of 90 years:
The above graph indicate initial population rabbit was around twenty thousand and over the 90 year period the maximum population rabbit was above 15,265 in 1863 , the next highest population of rabbit was occurred in 1885 13,586. It has minimum of population 2,180 in 1862. The graph is neither in a linear or parabolic trend, which means the population neither increase or decrease throughout the time period in a steady phase, but it flows in a particular trend of increasing , deceasing which might due to various topographical factors.
Population growth pattern of wolf for the period of 90 years:
The above graph indicate initial population rabbit was 30,090 and over the 90 year period the maximum population rabbit was 79,350 in 1886 , the next highest population of wolf was occurred in 1905 63,510. It has minimum of population 3,410 in 1908. The graph is neither in a trend of linear or parabolic, which indicating the population neither increase or decrease throughout the time period in a steady manner, but it flows in a particular trend of increasing , deceasing which might due to various topographical factors. Now we look into a comparative analysis on the population of both the organism, before stepping into the actual survival and fecundity rate of both female organism
Comparative graphical study on wolf and rabbit:
The comparative graph reveals the following observation. Increase in population of rabbit is not completely dependent on the survivability of the organism alone. At a given time period , the population of rabbit is higher than the wolf. There is a simultaneous increases and decreases of both the organisms, within a time period of 3 decade the highest and lowest number population seemingly occurs.
The other following technological factors are need to be considered for proceeding to the predator prey model of Leslie. Rabbit starts to breed at 5 to 6 months of age, they can give birth to 1-12 kittens per. In a pack of wolf only the lead pair will breed and their breeding age is 2 years , they can have 1-6 pups per litters.
As per the above enumerations population of rabbit was higher than the wolf population at any given point of the time. Hence the following numbers may be assumed for calculating the Leslie population dynamics.
Leslie Population dynamic matrix of Rabbit:
Let us consider rabbit in age class of 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4 years
Leslie Survival matrix of Rabbit
Leslie matrix L = F1 F2 F3 F4
S1 0 0 0
0 S2 0 0
0 0 S3 0
Here Fi= fecundity at age i
S1 =proportion of 1 year old rabbit surviving to 2nd year
S2 =proportion of 2year old rabbit surviving to 3rd year
S3 =proportion of 3 year old rabbit surviving to 4th year
Leslie Rabbit survival matrix =
1
1
2
2
0.3
0
0
0
0
0.3
0
0
0
0
0.2
0
Let us assume initial population of female rabbits be 10000
Leslie population matrix of Rabbit : Pn = K.Pn-1
Rabbit
Leslie
10000
1
1
2
2
10000
0.3
0
0
0
10000
0
0.3
0
0
10000
0
0
0.2
0
Pn = K.Pn-1
Pn : population of current year
K: survival rate of wolf population
Pn-1: Previous year wolf population
population each year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0-1 year
10,000.00
60,000.00
73,000.00
94,000.00
1,27,060.00
1,70,560.00
2,28,226.00
3,05,648.80
4,09,391.56
5,48,307.04
7,34,357.43
1-2 year
10,000.00
3,000.00
18,000.00
21,900.00
28,200.00
38,118.00
51,168.00
68,467.80
91,694.64
1,22,817.47
1,64,492.11
2-3 year
10,000.00
3,000.00
900.00
5,400.00
6,570.00
8,460.00
11,435.40
15,350.40
20,540.34
27,508.39
36,845.24
3-4 year
10,000.00
2,000.00
600.00
180.00
1,080.00
1,314.00
1,692.00
2,287.08
3,070.08
4,108.07
5,501.68
From the above Leslie population dynamics table the survival rate of the rabbit population decreases at the end of first 10 years. The female rabbit population for 0-1 years of age increased from 10,000 to 7,34,357 , for 1-2 years it was increased to 1,64,492, then it decreases to 36,845 2-3 years and for 3-4 years the female population decreased at the end of first 10 year is 5,501.
population each year
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
0-1 year
983543.4
1317284
1764270
2362930
3164730
4238600
5676860.2
7603157.1
10183093.4
13638464.9
1-2 year
220307.2
295063.01
395185.2
529281.1
708879.1
949419
1271580
1703058.1
2280947.119
3054928.02
2-3...