(There could be many reasonable approaches to this exercise. A good statistician will wrestle with this question all their life.) Consider a unique event such as the 2037 Super bowl of the 3011...


(There could be many reasonable approaches to this exercise. A good statistician will wrestle with this question all their life.) Consider a unique event such as the 2037 Super bowl of the 3011 Indianapolis 500. Presumably there is some chance that the Green Bay Packers will win the 2037 Super bowl. Given that the event is unique, how can there be a probability that the Green Bay Packers will win? After all, probabilities are based on long- run averages. Although it could be argued there can be no probability, it is the opinion of the author that there is a probability and that this probability is less than 0.5 and greater than 1/5000. In fact, other than the trivial examples of flipping coins and rolling dice discussed in probability courses, what events are not unique?



May 22, 2022
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