The senior executives of an oil company are trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular field in the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $300,000 to drill in the selected field. Company...


The senior executives of an oil company are trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular field in the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $300,000 to drill in the selected field. Company executives believe that if oil is found in this field, its estimated value will be $1,800,000. At present, this oil company believes there is a 48% chance that the selected field actually contains oil. Before drilling, the company can hire a geologist at a cost of $30,000 to prepare a report that contains a recommendation regarding drilling in the selected field. There is a 55% chance that the geologist will issue a favorable recommendation and a 45% chance that the geologist will issue an unfavorable recommendation. Given a favorable recommendation from the geologist, there is a 75% chance that the field actually contains oil. Given an unfavorable recommendation from the geologist, there is a 15% chance that the field actually contains oil.


a. Assuming that this oil company wants to maximize its expected net earnings, determine its optimal strategy through the use of a decision tree.


 b. Compute and interpret EVSI for this decision problem.


c. Compute and interpret EVPI for this decision problem.



May 25, 2022
SOLUTION.PDF

Get Answer To This Question

Related Questions & Answers

More Questions »

Submit New Assignment

Copy and Paste Your Assignment Here