The Ryder Cup is a three-day golf tournament played every other year with 12 of the best U.S. golfers against 12 of the best European golfers. They play 16 team matches (each match has two U.S. golfers against two European golfers) on Friday and Saturday, and they play 12 singles matches (each match has a single U.S. golfer against a European golfer) on Sunday. Each match is either won or tied. A win yields 1 point for the winning team and 0 points for the losing team. A tie yields 0.5 point for each team. A team needs 14.5 points to win the Cup. If each team gets 14 points, the tournament is a tie, but the preceding winner gets to keep the Cup. In 1999, the U.S. was behind 10 points to 6 after the team matches. To win the Cup, the U.S. needed at least 8.5 points on Sunday, a very unlikely outcome, but they pulled off the miracle and won. Use simulation to estimate the probability of the U.S. scoring at least 8.5 points in the 12 singles matches, assuming all golfers in the tournament are essentially equal. Proceed as follows.
a. Use simulation to estimate the probability, call it h (for half), that a given match ends in a tie. To do this, you can assume that any of the 18 holes is tied with probability 0.475 and won with probability 0.525. (These are the historical fractions of holes that have been tied and won in singles matches in the past few Ryder Cups.) Note that each match is “match play,” so the only thing that counts on each hole is whether a golfer has fewer strokes than the other golfer—winning a hole by one stroke is equivalent to winning the hole by two or more strokes in match play. The player winning the most holes wins the match, unless they tie.
b. Run another simulation, using the estimated probability h as an input, to estimate the probability that the U.S. will score at least 8.5 points in the 12 singles matches.
Already registered? Login
Not Account? Sign up
Enter your email address to reset your password
Back to Login? Click here