The judge believes that the test accurately represents the witness' performance at the time of the accident, so the probabilities he assign to the events of the accident agree with the frequencies...

The judge believes that the test accurately represents the witness' performance at the time of the accident, so the probabilities he assign to the events of the accident agree with the frequencies reported by the test.

a. Construct the relevance diagram for the judge's state of information.

b. Construct the probability tree representing the judge's state of information. Label all endpoints, supply all branch probabilities, and calculate and label all endpoint probabilities.

c. Flip the tree. Label all endpoints, supply all branch probabilities, and calculate and label all endpoint probabilities.

d. Draw a relevance diagram corresponding to your result in Part (c).

e. If the witness says "The cab involved in the accident was green," what probability should the judge assign to the cab involved in the accident being green?

f. How does the answer to Part (e) compare to the witness' accuracy on the test? Does this result seem surprising? Why or why not?