The Duke football team can Pass, Run, throw an Interception, or Fumble. Suppose the sequence of outcomes is Markov chain with the following transition matrix. The first play is a pass. (a) What is the...

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The Duke football team can Pass, Run, throw an Interception, or Fumble. Suppose the sequence of outcomes is Markov chain with the following transition matrix.


The first play is a pass. (a) What is the expected number of plays until a fumble or interception? (b) What is the probability the sequence of plays ends in an interception.




Answered Same DayDec 25, 2021

Answer To: The Duke football team can Pass, Run, throw an Interception, or Fumble. Suppose the sequence of...

Robert answered on Dec 25 2021
118 Votes
In the given markov chain, we know that the first play is a pass. So we are at pass initially.
a)
Expected number of plays until a fumble or an interception is encountered:
Let this expected number be XP and same expected number from the state R be XR
Then from P we know that there are 3 transitions possible:
The last term in the above equation represents that there is a 0.1 probability that it reaches state
I in 1 step only.
Now we can write similar equation from state R to get:
The last term in the above equation represents that there is a 0.05...
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