Tasks: There is not a long history for small wines, and demand is more volatile. Fit a model to the Sales of each Type. Assess price, holiday, promotional and possibly the lagged Sales’ effects on...

Tasks:
There is not a long history for small wines, and demand is more volatile. Fit a model to the Sales of each Type. Assess price, holiday, promotional and possibly the lagged Sales’ effects on each Type. Justify your models using statistical analysis. Generate forecast about six months into the future (after 26 May 2007) for each Type. How to set price and run promotion to maximize long-term revenue?


WineSales DateTotalSalesBasePricePromotionRegionType 2/22/04960$156.190reg1vinta 2/29/041098$136.590reg1vinta 3/7/042078$72.180reg1vinta 3/14/041620$92.520reg1vinta 3/21/041795$83.550reg1vinta 3/28/042314$64.770reg1vinta 4/4/041746$85.830reg1vinta 4/11/041313$114.190reg1vinta 4/18/041098$136.500reg1vinta 4/25/041311$114.280reg1vinta 5/2/041656$90.470reg1vinta 5/9/041696$88.370reg1vinta 5/16/041740$86.140reg1vinta 5/23/041438$104.240reg1vinta 5/30/042344$63.960reg1vinta 6/6/041478$101.460reg1vinta 6/13/041179$127.150reg1vinta 6/20/041608$93.170reg1vinta 6/27/041502$99.870reg1vinta 7/4/042551$58.790reg1vinta 7/11/041948$76.980reg1vinta 7/18/042276$65.900reg1vinta 7/25/041911$78.460reg1vinta 8/1/041785$84.020reg1vinta 8/8/041580$94.900reg1vinta 8/15/041420$105.600reg1vinta 8/22/041651$90.740reg1vinta 8/29/041853$80.930reg1vinta 9/5/042349$63.840reg1vinta 9/12/042097$71.510reg1vinta 9/19/041249$120.080reg1vinta 9/26/041142$131.140reg1vinta 10/3/041590$94.260reg1vinta 10/10/041288$116.390reg1vinta 10/17/041839$81.540reg1vinta 10/24/041599$93.790reg1vinta 10/31/041706$87.840reg1vinta 11/7/041582$94.770reg1vinta 11/14/041513$99.110reg1vinta 11/21/042369$63.300reg1vinta 11/28/041932$77.610reg1vinta 12/5/042499$60.020reg1vinta 12/12/041879$79.810reg1vinta 12/19/043475$43.160reg1vinta 12/26/043256$46.060reg1vinta 1/2/053015$49.740reg1vinta 1/9/052352$63.740reg1vinta 1/16/051973$76.020reg1vinta 1/23/051945$77.070reg1vinta 1/30/052141$70.030reg1vinta 2/6/051415$105.970reg1vinta 2/13/051489$100.730reg1vinta 2/20/051380$108.660reg1vinta 2/27/051521$98.510reg1vinta 3/6/051788$83.830reg1vinta 3/13/051967$76.210reg1vinta 3/20/052172$69.050reg1vinta 3/27/051900$78.930reg1vinta 4/3/052610$57.460reg1vinta 4/10/051928$77.800reg1vinta 4/17/051673$89.580reg1vinta 4/24/051916$78.230reg1vinta 5/1/052071$72.390reg1vinta 5/8/052570$58.350reg1vinta 5/15/052637$56.870reg1vinta 5/22/052583$58.060reg1vinta 5/29/052796$53.650reg1vinta 6/5/052119$70.780reg1vinta 6/12/051817$82.520reg1vinta 6/19/051987$75.480reg1vinta 6/26/051902$78.740reg1vinta 7/3/053455$43.410reg1vinta 7/10/052231$67.230reg1vinta 7/17/053053$49.120reg1vinta 7/24/052121$70.690reg1vinta 7/31/052123$70.600reg1vinta 8/7/051883$79.640reg1vinta 8/14/051670$89.770reg1vinta 8/21/051840$81.500reg1vinta 8/28/051566$95.700reg1vinta 9/4/053253$46.100reg1vinta 9/11/052309$64.950reg1vinta 9/18/052029$73.890reg1vinta 9/25/051851$80.960reg1vinta 10/2/051566$95.780reg1vinta 10/9/052079$72.120reg1vinta 10/16/052283$65.640reg1vinta 10/23/052489$60.260reg1vinta 10/30/052349$63.850reg1vinta 11/6/051811$82.810reg1vinta 11/13/051577$95.030reg1vinta 11/20/052326$64.470reg1vinta 11/27/051993$75.210reg1vinta 12/4/052291$65.410reg1vinta 12/11/052115$70.910reg1vinta 12/18/052334$64.250reg1vinta 12/25/053812$39.341reg1vinta 1/1/063277$45.750reg1vinta 1/8/061910$78.530reg1vinta 1/15/062096$71.530reg1vinta 1/22/062826$53.070reg1vinta 1/29/062466$60.820reg1vinta 2/5/062330$64.360reg1vinta 2/12/062267$66.150reg1vinta 2/19/062286$65.600reg1vinta 2/26/062781$53.920reg1vinta 3/5/062428$61.740reg1vinta 3/12/062384$62.900reg1vinta 3/19/062241$66.900reg1vinta 3/26/063040$49.330reg1vinta 4/2/062328$64.430reg1vinta 4/9/061908$78.610reg1vinta 4/16/062104$71.290reg1vinta 4/23/061853$80.900reg1vinta 4/30/061949$76.940reg1vinta 5/7/062762$54.290reg1vinta 5/14/062582$58.080reg1vinta 5/21/063441$43.580reg1vinta 5/28/063029$49.510reg1vinta 6/4/062161$69.380reg1vinta 6/11/062154$69.620reg1vinta 6/18/062557$58.660reg1vinta 6/25/062140$70.050reg1vinta 7/2/063488$43.000reg1vinta 7/9/063174$47.250reg1vinta 7/16/062247$66.740reg1vinta 7/23/062207$67.960reg1vinta 7/30/062610$57.450reg1vinta 8/6/061706$87.890reg1vinta 8/13/062177$68.890reg1vinta 8/20/062167$69.210reg1vinta 8/27/062284$65.650reg1vinta 9/3/063532$42.460reg1vinta 9/10/062171$69.060reg1vinta 9/17/062128$70.450reg1vinta 9/24/063346$44.820reg1vinta 10/1/062055$72.980reg1vinta 10/8/062436$61.570reg1vinta 10/15/063182$47.130reg1vinta 10/22/062266$66.150reg1vinta 10/29/062345$63.970reg1vinta 11/5/061870$80.190reg1vinta 11/12/062084$71.960reg1vinta 11/19/063099$48.390reg1vinta 11/26/062150$69.730reg1vinta 12/3/063155$47.530reg1vinta 12/10/063282$45.690reg1vinta 12/17/062724$55.050reg1vinta 12/24/064567$32.841reg1vinta 12/31/064456$33.641reg1vinta 1/7/071797$83.430reg1vinta 1/14/072041$73.450reg1vinta 1/21/072370$63.250reg1vinta 1/28/073144$47.700reg1vinta 2/4/072893$51.810reg1vinta 2/11/072978$50.360reg1vinta 2/18/072229$67.280reg1vinta 2/25/072156$69.520reg1vinta 3/4/072484$60.380reg1vinta 3/11/073394$44.190reg1vinta 3/18/073155$47.540reg1vinta 3/25/073021$49.640reg1vinta 4/1/072845$52.690reg1vinta 4/8/073211$46.700reg1vinta 4/15/072241$66.920reg1vinta 4/22/072918$51.400reg1vinta 4/29/073985$37.641reg1vinta 5/6/073125$47.991reg1vinta 5/13/073926$38.200reg1vinta 5/20/073296$45.510reg1vinta 5/27/07$43.580reg1vinta 6/3/07$49.510reg1vinta 6/10/07$69.380reg1vinta 6/17/07$69.620reg1vinta 6/24/07$58.660reg1vinta 7/1/07$70.050reg1vinta 7/8/07$43.000reg1vinta 7/15/07$47.250reg1vinta 7/22/07$66.740reg1vinta 7/29/07$67.960reg1vinta 8/5/07$57.450reg1vinta 8/12/07$87.890reg1vinta 8/19/07$68.890reg1vinta 8/26/07$69.210reg1vinta 9/2/07$65.650reg1vinta 9/9/07$42.460reg1vinta 9/16/07$69.060reg1vinta 9/23/07$70.450reg1vinta 9/30/07$44.820reg1vinta 10/7/07$72.980reg1vinta 10/14/07$61.570reg1vinta 10/21/07$47.130reg1vinta 10/28/07$66.150reg1vinta 11/4/07$63.970reg1vinta 11/11/07$80.190reg1vinta 11/18/07$71.960reg1vinta 11/25/07$48.390reg1vinta 12/2/07$69.730reg1vinta 12/9/07$47.530reg1vinta 12/16/07$45.690reg1vinta 12/23/07$55.050reg1vinta 12/30/07$32.841reg1vinta 1/6/08$33.641reg1vinta 1/13/08$83.430reg1vinta 1/20/08$73.450reg1vinta 1/27/08$63.250reg1vinta 2/3/08$47.700reg1vinta 2/10/08$51.810reg1vinta 2/17/08$50.360reg1vinta 2/24/08$67.280reg1vinta 3/2/08$69.520reg1vinta 3/9/08$60.380reg1vinta 3/16/08$44.190reg1vinta 3/23/08$47.540reg1vinta 3/30/08$49.640reg1vinta 4/6/08$52.690reg1vinta 4/13/08$46.700reg1vinta 4/20/08$66.920reg1vinta 4/27/08$51.400reg1vinta 5/4/08$37.641reg1vinta 5/11/08$47.991reg1vinta 5/18/08$38.200reg1vinta 2/22/041099.2386184456$156.190reg2vinta 2/29/041531.7722177917$136.590reg2vinta 3/7/042178.58482127$72.180reg2vinta 3/14/041710.9066653582$92.520reg2vinta 3/21/042401.73493347$83.550reg2vinta 3/28/043628.3110177715$64.770reg2vinta 4/4/042176.4884888718$85.830reg2vinta 4/11/041469.4373254075$114.190reg2vinta 4/18/041635.0463811649$136.500reg2vinta 4/25/041742.0515775242$114.280reg2vinta 5/2/042117.7523584577$90.470reg2vinta 5/9/041846.1703414866$88.370reg2vinta 5/16/042086.7431647448$86.140reg2vinta 5/23/041846.107579826$104.240reg2vinta 5/30/042358.7080144212$63.960reg2vinta 6/6/041777.5690191442$101.460reg2vinta 6/13/041349.0475319403$127.150reg2vinta 6/20/041926.5223186212$93.170reg2vinta 6/27/042122.1500869418$99.870reg2vinta 7/4/042924.4250614806$58.790reg2vinta 7/11/042423.4331803759$76.980reg2vinta 7/18/042904.5595328532$65.900reg2vinta 7/25/042198.7815805635$78.460reg2vinta 8/1/041864.8900491834$84.020reg2vinta 8/8/043821.0087662638$94.900reg2vinta 8/15/041855.7787070261$105.600reg2vinta 8/22/042032.6594004774$90.740reg2vinta 8/29/042221.0733282848$80.930reg2vinta 9/5/042640.698337407$63.840reg2vinta 9/12/042262.120161276$71.510reg2vinta 9/19/041589.0040218372$120.080reg2vinta 9/26/041907.20860156$131.140reg2vinta 10/3/042582.8608700891$94.260reg2vinta 10/10/042141.6911123524$116.390reg2vinta 10/17/042318.8427474633$81.540reg2vinta 10/24/041622.3511282314$93.790reg2vinta 10/31/042665.1052027102$87.840reg2vinta 11/7/042454.9593313352$94.770reg2vinta 11/14/041720.1178773447$99.110reg2vinta 11/21/042867.6416370064$63.300reg2vinta 11/28/042222.3474333293$77.610reg2vinta 12/5/043113.4478245328$60.020reg2vinta 12/12/041947.1788541125$79.810reg2vinta 12/19/043969.1897171243$43.160reg2vinta 12/26/043317.1377473408$46.060reg2vinta 1/2/053118.3440166529$49.740reg2vinta 1/9/053181.441352965$63.740reg2vinta 1/16/052670.3939547409$76.020reg2vinta 1/23/052201.33990836$77.070reg2vinta 1/30/052284.6837074909$70.030reg2vinta 2/6/051581.8036933773$105.970reg2vinta 2/13/052168.2572334473$100.730reg2vinta 2/20/052487.4830693998$108.660reg2vinta 2/27/051538.7243312799$98.510reg2vinta 3/6/051950.0134459922$83.830reg2vinta 3/13/052129.4091356703$76.210reg2vinta 3/20/052410.6870132107$69.050reg2vinta 3/27/052268.3644141003$78.930reg2vinta 4/3/052754.5442296945$57.460reg2vinta 4/10/052783.2066657332$77.800reg2vinta 4/17/052165.1395139325$89.580reg2vinta 4/24/052151.3223538974$78.230reg2vinta 5/1/053239.8687956405$72.390reg2vinta 5/8/052987.0790795091$58.350reg2vinta 5/15/052663.1209653564$56.870reg2vinta 5/22/052727.8840616641$58.060reg2vinta 5/29/053423.7657984778$53.650reg2vinta 6/5/052674.2332727794$70.780reg2vinta 6/12/051860.6842077996$82.520reg2vinta 6/19/053367.517088605$75.480reg2vinta 6/26/052180.6379078897$78.740reg2vinta 7/3/054020.9755386073$43.410reg2vinta 7/10/052572.0211625538$67.230reg2vinta 7/17/053320.4510609868$49.120reg2vinta 7/24/053263.2390376503$70.690reg2vinta 7/31/052286.2803874659$70.600reg2vinta 8/7/052531.6668465512$79.640reg2vinta 8/14/052718.6634028394$89.770reg2vinta 8/21/052371.7149539757$81.500reg2vinta 8/28/051610.451445395$95.700reg2vinta 9/4/054377.7701091675$46.101reg2vinta 9/11/053133.3857059179$64.950reg2vinta 9/18/052409.7805973981$73.890reg2vinta 9/25/052266.4231608573$80.960reg2vinta 10/2/051906.9603577636$95.780reg2vinta 10/9/052182.7496294753$72.120reg2vinta 10/16/052284.190584467$65.641reg2vinta 10/23/053213.4614204006$60.260reg2vinta 10/30/052714.3814474886$63.850reg2vinta 11/6/051845.192966333$82.810reg2vinta 11/13/052260.102344739$95.030reg2vinta 11/20/052511.7023832559$64.470reg2vinta 11/27/052324.2603615521$75.210reg2vinta 12/4/053358.2765412459$65.410reg2vinta 12/11/052704.0617823624$70.910reg2vinta 12/18/052444.5306962193$64.250reg2vinta 12/25/054211.6797234963$39.340reg2vinta 1/1/063662.5872664859$45.750reg2vinta 1/8/062703.5724978568$78.530reg2vinta 1/15/062589.317572946$71.530reg2vinta 1/22/062899.8857009986$53.070reg2vinta 1/29/063195.4621257048$60.820reg2vinta 2/5/062934.4637938716$64.360reg2vinta 2/12/062572.2616782699$66.150reg2vinta 2/19/062536.6400806093$65.600reg2vinta 2/26/062902.76318608$53.920reg2vinta 3/5/062436.2460129343$61.740reg2vinta 3/12/063543.9642841991$62.900reg2vinta 3/19/062676.0206982019$66.900reg2vinta 3/26/063470.1618845023$49.330reg2vinta 4/2/063274.8246628072$64.430reg2vinta 4/9/061938.9099580297$78.610reg2vinta 4/16/062104.4315530982$71.290reg2vinta 4/23/062004.524622506$80.900reg2vinta 4/30/062029.7297011786$76.940reg2vinta 5/7/063447.5989077366$54.290reg2vinta 5/14/062803.5490968816$58.080reg2vinta 5/21/063459.9171992907$43.580reg2vinta 5/28/063040.4664080003$49.510reg2vinta 6/4/062376.606348131$69.380reg2vinta 6/11/062266.3589459885$69.620reg2vinta 6/18/062807.5361483659$58.660reg2vinta 6/25/062244.1508793517$70.050reg2vinta 7/2/064024.1070811504$43.000reg2vinta 7/9/063241.5504928005$47.250reg2vinta 7/16/062703.5191008906$66.740reg2vinta 7/23/062245.9825796578$67.960reg2vinta 7/30/063172.5063080219$57.450reg2vinta 8/6/062314.8662589794$87.890reg2vinta 8/13/062696.5694520657$68.890reg2vinta 8/20/062502.5651560504$69.210reg2vinta 8/27/062861.3921472497$65.650reg2vinta 9/3/064224.524414757$42.460reg2vinta 9/10/062246.3516389716$69.060reg2vinta 9/17/062382.9995532603$70.450reg2vinta 9/24/063451.3465316579$44.820reg2vinta 10/1/062508.687927817$72.980reg2vinta 10/8/063339.2782468121$61.570reg2vinta 10/15/064525.7347001698$47.130reg2vinta 10/22/062615.7297040729$66.150reg2vinta 10/29/062648.1444761809$63.970reg2vinta 11/5/063004.3119347411$80.190reg2vinta 11/12/062356.2909005709$71.960reg2vinta 11/19/063739.3495963194$48.390reg2vinta 11/26/062246.0899330776$69.730reg2vinta 12/3/063242.4350702581$47.530reg2vinta 12/10/063872.0782440729$45.690reg2vinta 12/17/063001.7179677558$55.050reg2vinta 12/24/064665.6882935019$32.841reg2vinta 12/31/064641.7347717224$33.641reg2vinta 1/7/072165.0161378751$83.430reg2vinta 1/14/072550.2348564381$73.450reg2vinta 1/21/072823.7228952541$63.250reg2vinta 1/28/074365.8194598445$47.701reg2vinta 2/4/073001.5102733067$51.810reg2vinta 2/11/073062.7477179521$50.360reg2vinta 2/18/073067.5194752024$67.280reg2vinta 2/25/072603.8383822253$69.520reg2vinta 3/4/072852.8289635311$60.380reg2vinta 3/11/073933.6990419307$44.190reg2vinta 3/18/073202.1425527666$47.540reg2vinta 3/25/073692.7829295422$49.640reg2vinta 4/1/073464.8485532078$52.690reg2vinta 4/8/073307.4071036479$46.700reg2vinta 4/15/072474.429258877$66.920reg2vinta 4/22/072970.3077454121$51.400reg2vinta 4/29/074352.5212514996$37.640reg2vinta 5/6/073478.1955605979$47.990reg2vinta 5/13/074189.5233087386$38.200reg2vinta 5/20/073605.0788233886$45.510reg2vinta 5/27/07$43.580reg2vinta 6/3/07$49.510reg2vinta 6/10/07$69.380reg2vinta 6/17/07$69.620reg2vinta 6/24/07$58.660reg2vinta 7/1/07$70.050reg2vinta 7/8/07$43.000reg2vinta 7/15/07$47.250reg2vinta 7/22/07$66.740reg2vinta 7/29/07$67.960reg2vinta 8/5/07$57.450reg2vinta 8/12/07$87.890reg2vinta 8/19/07$68.890reg2vinta 8/26/07$69.210reg2vinta 9/2/07$65.650reg2vinta 9/9/07$42.460reg2vinta 9/16/07$69.060reg2vinta 9/23/07$70.450reg2vinta 9/30/07$44.820reg2vinta 10/7/07$72.980reg2vinta 10/14/07$61.570reg2vinta 10/21/07$47.130reg2vinta 10/28/07$66.150reg2vinta 11/4/07$63.970reg2vinta 11/11/07$80.190reg2vinta 11/18/07$71.960reg2vinta 11/25/07$48.390reg2vinta 12/2/07$69.730reg2vinta 12/9/07$47.530reg2vinta 12/16/07$45.690reg2vinta 12/23/07$55.050reg2vinta 12/30/07$32.841reg2vinta 1/6/08$33.641reg2vinta 1/13/08$83.430reg2vinta 1/20/08$73.450reg2vinta 1/27/08$63.250reg2vinta 2/3/08$47.701reg2vinta 2/10/08$51.810reg2vinta 2/17/08$50.360reg2vinta 2/24/08$67.280reg2vinta 3/2/08$69.520reg2vinta 3/9/08$60.380reg2vinta 3/16/08$44.190reg2vinta 3/23/08$47.540reg2vinta 3/30/08$49.640reg2vinta 4/6/08$52.690reg2vinta 4/13/08$46.700reg2vinta 4/20/08$66.920reg2vinta 4/27/08$51.400reg2vinta 5/4/08$37.640reg2vinta 5/11/08$47.990reg2vinta 5/18/08$38.200reg2vinta 2/22/04144$156.190reg3vinta 2/29/04164.7$136.590reg3vinta 3/7/04311.7$72.180reg3vinta 3/14/04243$92.520reg3vinta 3/21/04269.25$83.550reg3vinta 3/28/04347.1$64.770reg3vinta 4/4/04261.9$85.830reg3vinta 4/11/04196.95$114.190reg3vinta 4/18/04164.7$136.500reg3vinta 4/25/04196.65$114.280reg3vinta 5/2/04248.4$90.470reg3vinta 5/9/04254.4$88.370reg3vinta 5/16/04261$86.140reg3vinta 5/23/04215.7$104.240reg3vinta 5/30/04351.6$63.960reg3vinta 6/6/04221.7$101.460reg3vinta 6/13/04176.85$127.150reg3vinta 6/20/04241.2$93.170reg3vinta 6/27/04225.3$99.870reg3vinta 7/4/04382.65$58.790reg3vinta 7/11/04292.2$76.980reg3vinta 7/18/04341.4$65.900reg3vinta 7/25/04286.65$78.460reg3vinta 8/1/04267.75$84.020reg3vinta 8/8/04237$94.900reg3vinta 8/15/04213$105.600reg3vinta 8/22/04247.65$90.740reg3vinta 8/29/04277.95$80.930reg3vinta 9/5/04352.35$63.840reg3vinta 9/12/04314.55$71.510reg3vinta 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