Table B.10 contains seven years of monthly data on the number of airline miles flown in the United Kingdom. This is seasonal data.
a. Make a time series plot of the data and verify that it is seasonal.
b. Use Winters" multiplicative method for the first six years to develop a forecasting method for this data. How well does this smoothing procedure work?
c. Make one-step-ahead forecasts of the last 12 months. Determine the forecast errors. How well did your procedure work in forecasting the new data?
TABLE B. 10 United Kingdom Airline Miles Flown
Month
Miles (in millions)
Jan-1964
7.269
Jul-1967
12.222
Feb-1964
6.775
Aug-1967
12.246
Mar-1964
7.819
Sep-1967
13.281
Apr-1964
8.371
Oct-1967
10.366
May-1964
9.069
Nov-1967
8.730
Jun-1964
10.248
Dec-1967
9.614
Ju1-1964
11.030
Jan-1968
8.639
Aug-1964
10.882
Feb-1968
8.772
Sep-1964
10.333
Mar-1968
10.894
Oct-1964
9.109
Apr-1968
10.455
Nov-1964
7.685
May-1968
11.179
Dec-1964
7.682
Jun-1968
10.588
Jan-1965
8.350
Jul-1968
10.794
Feb-1965
7.829
Aug-1968
12.770
Mar-1965
8.829
Sep-1968
13.812
Apr-1965
9.948
Oct-1968
10.857
May-1965
10.638
Nov-1968
9.290
Jun-1965
11.253
Dec-1968
10.925
Jul-1965
11.424
Jan-1969
9.491
Aug-1965
11.391
Feb-1969
8.919
Sep-1965
10.665
Mar-1969
11.607
Oct-1965
9.396
Apr-1969
8.852
Nov-1965
7.775
May-1969
12.537
Dec-1965
7.933
Jun-1969
14.759
Jan-1966
8.186
Jul-1969
13.667
Feb-1966
7.444
Aug-1969
13.731
Mar-1966
8.484
Sep-1969
15.110
Apr-1966
9.864
Oct-1969
12.185
May-1966
10.252
Nov-1969
10.645
Jun-1966
12.282
Dec-1969
12.161
Ju1-1966
11.637
Jan-1970
10.840
Aug-1966
11.577
Feb-1970
10.436
Sep-1966
12.417
Mar-1970
13.589
Oct-1966
9.637
Apr-1970
13.402
Nov-1966
8.094
May-1970
13.103
Dec-1966
9.280
Jun-1970
14.933
Jan-1967
8.334
Ju1-1970
14.147
Feb-1967
7.899
Aug-1970
14.057
Mar-1967
9.994
Sep-1970
16.234
Apr-1967
10.078
Oct-1970
12.389
May-1967
10.801
Nov-1970
11.594
Jun-1967
12.953
Dec-1970
12.772
Already registered? Login
Not Account? Sign up
Enter your email address to reset your password
Back to Login? Click here