STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 1 of 8 ASSESSMENT BRIEF Subject Code and Title STAT 6003: Statistics for Financial Decisions Assessment Module 5 - Assessment 1: Short written assessments Individual/Group Individual Length NA Learning Outcomes 1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel). 2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks. 3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions. 4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making. 5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and nonaccounting backgrounds. Submission By 11:55pm AEST/AEDT Sunday at the end of each Module Weighting 30% (Total of all written assessments throughout the subject) Total Marks 100 marks Context: The short written module assessments allows you to apply your knowledge on the concepts and ideas discussed during the Module. These assessments will also prepare you for the final report. Instructions: You are required to apply your knowledge and draw links between the scenario and the learning resources. In your answers, reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the module. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts have been reviewed and that you can apply these concepts to the problems posted. STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 2 of 8 Assignment Introduction: The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut would like to forecast sales figures for the Federated Islands for this year (2016) based on a data set that has collected information over the past 25 years. The dataset which is provided in the EXCEL file is for the Federated Islands and includes other variables. Assume that the development of the sales of Energy Bars (in US$) in a country is highly dependent on: • The development of the income of that country approximated by GDP data in US$ • The development of prices approximated by an average price index (in %) • The population development (15-65 years of age) • Satisfaction of customers with the product which is approximated with a survey score – this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied) • The advertisement of energy bars - number of average advertisements, and • The Number of stores where the energy bars can be purchased. If we would rewrite this relationship with a regression: ???????????????????????? = ????0 + ????1???????????????? + ????2???????????????????????????????????????????? + ????3???????????????????????????????????????????? + ????4???????????????????????????????????????????????????? + ????5???????????????????????????????????????????????????????? + ????6???????????????????????????? + ???????? (1) We are now interested to estimate what a 1% change in these figures would have on the development of the sales. A common approach in econometric analysis is to apply the natural logs (ln). Doing so will return coefficients that estimate a percent change in your dependent variable for a unit change in your independent variable. For example, a coefficient of 0.25 for the GDP variable implies that a 1% change in GDP will change sales by 0.25%. The model in log-linear form is the presented as follows: ???????????????????????????????? = ????0 + ????1???????????????????????? + ????2???????????????????????????????????????????????????? + ????3???????????????????????????????????????????????????? + ????4???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? + ????5???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? + ????6???????????????????????????????????? + ???????? (2) In EXCEL, for a transformation of data into natural logs, simply apply ‘=ln(data)’. STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 3 of 8 Your tasks: (a) Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the EXCEL file. (b) Conduct a correlation analysis between the sales results, and: (i) Satisfaction scores (ii) Number of advertisement (iii) Number of stores (c) Run a time series regression of the above equation (2) and interpret the results. (d) Assuming that for 2016 we are provided with the following forecast estimates: - GDP to grow by 2.5% - Prices to be at 2% - Population to grow by 0.5% - A satisfaction score of 7.5 - Number of advertisements: 18 - Number of stores: 12 What would be the approximate sales for 2016 based on the economic analysis? (e) Can you think of alternative forecasting techniques you could apply? Compare your results from (d) with your alternative forecasting approaches. STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 4 of 8 Learning Rubrics Assessment Attributes Fail (Unacceptable) Pass (Functional) Credit (Proficient) Distinction (Advanced) High Distinction (Exceptional) Grade Description (Grading Scheme) Evidence of unsatisfactory achievement of one or more of the learning objectives of the course, insufficient understanding of the course content and/or unsatisfactory level of skill development. Evidence of satisfactory achievement of course learning objectives, the development of relevant skills to a competent level, and adequate interpretation and critical analysis skills. Evidence of a good level of understanding, knowledge and skill development in relation to the content of the course or work of a superior quality on the majority of the learning objectives of the course. Demonstration of a high level of interpretation and critical analysis skills. Evidence of a high level of achievement of the learning objectives of the course demonstrated in such areas as interpretation and critical analysis, logical argument, use of methodology and communication skills. Evidence of an exceptional level of achievement of learning objectives across the entire content of the course demonstrated in such areas as interpretation and critical analysis, logical argument, creativity, originality, use of methodology and communication skills. Content, Audience and Purpose Points for this criteria Does not meet minimum standard Demonstrates no awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment. Meets minimum standard Demonstrates limited awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment Moves beyond minimum standard Demonstrates consistent awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment. Exceeds minimum standard Demonstrates an advanced and integrated understanding of context and/or purpose of the assignment. Exceeds minimum standard and exhibits high levels of independence Consistently demonstrates a systematic and critical understanding of context and purpose of the assignment. Knowledge and understanding Limited understanding of required concepts and knowledge Knowledge or understanding of the field or discipline. Resembles a recall or summary of key ideas. Thorough knowledge or understanding of the field or discipline/s. Supports personal opinion and information substantiated by Highly developed understanding of the field or discipline/s. A sophisticated understanding of the field or discipline/s. STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 5 of 8 Points for this criteria Key components of the assignment are not addressed. Often conflates/confuses assertion of personal opinion with information substantiated by evidence from the research/course materials. evidence from the research/course materials. Demonstrates a capacity to explain and apply relevant concepts. Discriminates between assertion of personal opinion and information substantiated by robust evidence from the research/course materials and extended reading. Well demonstrated capacity to explain and apply relevant concepts. Systematically and critically discriminates between assertion of personal opinion and information substantiated by robust evidence from the research/course materials and extended reading. Mastery of concepts and application to new situations/further learning. Critical reasoning, presentation and defence of an argument and/or position Specific position (perspective or argument) fails to take into account the complexities of the issue(s) or scope of the assignment. Makes assertions that are not justified. Specific position (perspective or argument) begins to take into account the issue(s) or scope of the assignment. Justifies any conclusions reached with arguments not merely assertion. Specific position (perspective or argument) takes into account the complexities of the issue(s) or scope of the assignment. Others’ points of view are acknowledged. Justifies any conclusions reached with well-formed arguments not merely assertion. Specific position (perspective or argument) is expertly presented and accurately takes into account the complexities of the issue(s) and scope of the assignment. Justifies any conclusions reached with welldeveloped arguments. Specific position (perspective or argument) is presented expertly, authoritatively and imaginatively, accurately taking into account the complexities of the issue(s) and scope of the assignment. Limits of position are acknowledged. Justifies any conclusions reached with sophisticated arguments. STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 6 of 8 Analysis and application with synthesis of new knowledge Limited synthesis and analysis. Limited application/recommendations based upon analysis. Demonstrated analysis and synthesis of new knowledge with application. Shows the ability to interpret relevant information and literature. Well-developed analysis and synthesis with application of recommendations linked to analysis/synthesis. Thoroughly developed and creative analysis and synthesis with application of pretested models and / or independently developed models and justified recommendations linked to analysis/synthesis Highly sophisticated and creative analysis, synthesis of new with existing knowledge. Strong application by way of pretested models and / or independently developed models. Recommendations are clearly justified based on the analysis/synthesis. Applying knowledge to new situations/other cases. Ethico moral reasoning (recognises ethical and moral issues within a discipline and is able to reason based on these principles) Difficulty in formulating own opinion and lack of recognition of ethical principles and competing interests. Does not clearly demonstrate moral-ethical reasoning. Difficulty in justifying conclusions based on moralethical principles but recognises different viewpoints. Conclusions are justified based on moral-ethical principles. Formulates and justifies conclusions based on moral-ethical principles. Can recognise the competing interests in arguments and identify ethical issues embodied in them. Uses ethical principles to identify competing interests and views. Sophisticated understanding of the ethical and moral positions. Well-articulated viewpoint based on moral-ethical reasoning. STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 7 of 8 Use of academic and discipline conventions and sources of evidence Poorly written with errors in spelling, grammar. Demonstrates inconsistent use of good quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop ideas. There are mistakes in using the APA style. Is written according to academic genre (e.g. with introduction, conclusion or summary) and has accurate spelling, grammar, sentence and paragraph construction. Demonstrates consistent use of credible and relevant research sources to support and develop ideas, but these are not always explicit or well developed. There are no mistakes in using the APA style. Is well-written and adheres to the academic genre (e.g. with introduction, conclusion or summary). Demonstrates consistent use of high quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop ideas. There are no mistakes in using the APA style. Is very well-written and adheres to the academic genre. Consistently demonstrates expert use of good quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop appropriate arguments and statements. Shows evidence of reading beyond the key reading There are no mistakes in using the APA style. Expertly written and adheres to the academic genre. Demonstrates expert use of high-quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop arguments and position statements. Shows extensive evidence of reading beyond the key reading There are no mistakes in using the APA Style. Effective communication Difficult to understand for audience, no logical/clear structure, poor flow of ideas, argument lacks supporting evidence. No effort is made to keep audience engaged, audience cannot follow the line of reasoning. Little use of presentation aids, or the presentation aids and material used are irrelevant. Information, arguments and evidence are presented in a way that is not always clear and logical. Attempts are made to keep the audience engaged, but not always successful. Line of reasoning is often difficult to follow. Presentation aids are used more for effect than relevance. Information, arguments and evidence are well presented, mostly clear flow of ideas and arguments. The audience is mostly engaged, line of reasoning is easy to follow. Effective use of presentation aids. Information, arguments and evidence are very well presented, the presentation is logical, clear and well supported by evidence. Engages the audience, demonstrates cultural sensitivity. Carefully and well prepared presentations aids are used. Expertly presented; the presentation is logical, persuasive, and well supported by evidence, demonstrating a clear flow of ideas and arguments. Engages and sustains audience’s interest in the topic, demonstrates high levels of cultural sensitivity STAT6003 Module 5 Assessment 1 Page 8 of 8 Effective use of diverse presentation aids, including graphics and multi-media.