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Community Profile of Census Tract 4070.docx Community Profile of Census Tract 4070 Allendale, Oakland, California City Planning 101 Assignment 1 Jae Kim Tanya Alauddin February 2021 Introduction This community profile describes the population and household characteristics of Census Tract 4070 in Oakland, California. This tract, specifically known as Allendale, is bounded by 35th Avenue and High Street to the north and south, and Brookdale Avenue and MacArthur Boulevard to west and east. The main sources of data this report uses are the five-year, mainly 2006-2010 and 2015-2019, estimates of the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The tables and charts for various variables like income, household composition, and educational attainments are produced based on the ACS. However, the data from ACS is not an actual total count, but an estimate produced from the sample surveys, which creates the sampling error. The errors in the data are noted in the figures as error bars or numbers throughout the report. Key Findings Population and Household Census Tract 4070 had total population of 5,869 in 2019, which slightly decreased since 2010 with the total population of 5,921. The negative growth rate of -0.88% contrasts with the positive growth rate (9.9%) of the total population of Oakland City, which had total population of 386,909 and 425,097 respectively in 2010 and 2019. 1.38% of the total population of Oakland City lived in the tract 4070 in 2019. In 2010, 1.53% of the total population of Oakland City lived in the tract 4070, so there was a slight decrease in the percent total population of Oakland living in the tract 4070. See section 1 of the appendix for the further detail. Age Structure of the Population The change of the total population since 2010 to 2019 of the tract 4070 was not very significant (-0.88%), but there are noticeable age demographic changes. Figure 1 shows that the 25-to-29 age group is the largest in both years, and it is noted that in 2019, population of the 25-to-29 age group increased by 67.5%. Oakland City also had age group of 25-to-29 as its largest age group, but the percentage from the total groups is only 9.9% while tract 4070 had 17.2%. Figure 1: 2010 and 2019 Age Pyramid of Tract 4070 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B01001 Sex by Age Household Type and Composition The clear changes of the family household size in tract 4070 between 2010 and 2019 are shown in figure 2. The only family households that increased since 2010 are 3-person household and 4-person household, which is a contrasting fact that all family households except 6-person household in Oakland City had increased since 2010. The overall population of Oakland City had increased since 2010 with the growth rate of 9.9%, so it is expected to have overall increase in the family households. However, for tract 4070, 3-person family household and 4-person family household had increased significantly with 30.8% and 27.9% respectively even with the overall decrease in the population. See section 2 of the appendix for the further detail. It is necessary to take notice of the error bars in the chart as tract 4070 is a small tract, small sampling resulted in the large margins of error. Therefore, with the 90% confidence interval, it is 90% sure that the real value will lie under the error bars, and in this specific case with the large error bars that overlap in both 2010’s and 2019’s, it is possible that the increase might possibly be decrease and vice versa. Moreover, it is possible that 6- and 7-or-more-person household didn’t even exist since the error bars for those variables go under 0 (the margin of error for 6-person-household for 2010 is 41 and the estimate is 46, so error bar for this variable doesn’t go under 0). Figure 2: Family Household Size in Tract 4070, Estimates of 2010 and 2019 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B11016 Household Type by Household Size Racial/Ethnic Composition Figure 3 illustrates the racial distribution of Tract 4070 and shows the change of the racial demographics between 2010 and 2019. As demonstrated with the negative growth rate of the overall population, most of the populations of racial groups decreased except for the Hispanic or Latino and Others group. Others group consist of American Indian and Alaska Native alone, Native Hawaiian and Others Pacific islander alone, and some other race alone. There was a noticeable increase of the Others category with the growth rate of 614%, so it is inferred that there was a massive influx of the races in the others group in the tract 4070. From the data of Oakland City, the estimated value of Others category decreased 13.5%, and this significantly contrasts the city trend of the racial demographic. See section 4 of the appendix for the further detail. As stated above, the tract is small, so it is possible to have the misinterpretation of the actual values in the chart due to the high margins of error. The confidence interval of the margins of error is 90% in all ACS data. The method of calculating the margins of error for the aggregated count data is shown in the section 4 of the appendix. Figure 3: Racial Distribution of Tract 4070 in 2010 and 2019 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015-2019 American Community Survey, Table B02002: Hispanic or Latino Origin by Race Income and Poverty Figure 4: Per Capita Income in the Past 12 Months (in 2019 inflation-adjusted dollars) Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, S1701: Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months Figure 4 shows the changes of the per capita income in tract 4070 and Oakland City in both 2010 and 2019. The dollar values as well as the margins of error are inflation adjusted to 2019 dollar. Both tract 4070 and Oakland show the increase of the per capita income in the past 12 months with the growth rate of 24.6% and 21.1% respectively. It can be surprising because the growth rate of the tract 4070 is higher than that of Oakland, but the margins of error can possibly provide the misinterpretation of the actual values since the error bars for tract 4070 are longer. Moreover, even though the growth rate is greater for tract 4070, the per capita income for tract 4070 is still significantly lower than Oakland’s, so tract 4070 is at the poorer sides in the city of Oakland. It is important to see the large increase of the poverty level of Others category in the figure 5, which illustrates the estimated number below the poverty levels by races in 2012 and 2019. The significant increase of the population below poverty threshold of Others category seems to be related with the significant influx of the population of races in Others category in the previous section. It is reasonable to infer that the large population of Others category below poverty threshold moved into tract 4070 since 2012. On the other hand, the Black population below the poverty level decreased significantly and it seems to be those population are moving out from the tract 4070. The data for 2008-2012 5-year-estimiate is specifically used for this chart as ACS doesn’t have the 5-year estimate from 2006-2010 for this data. Figure 5: Number Below Poverty Level by Races, Estimates of 2012 and 2019 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-2012 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, S1701: Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months Educational Attainment As the importance of the education for earning higher salary is highlighted, the clear differences of the educational attainments between tract 4070 and Oakland are also noticed. The percentages of the population attaining bachelor’s degree and graduate or professional degree in Oakland are increasing from 20.6% to 25.2% and 15.7 to 18.8% respectively, however, the percent population with bachelor’s degree decreased in tract 4070 from 12.5% to 11.2%. Looking at the educational attainments by races, percentage estimates of the population with the bachelor’s degree or higher in all race categories in tract 4070 are lower than that of Oakland. And to specify the noticeable values, only 7.4% of the Others category had bachelor’s degree or higher and only 38.5% had high school diploma or higher in 2019. See section 6 of the appendix for further detail. Composition of the Housing Stock Physical Characteristics of the Housing Stock Journey-to-Work Travel Characteristics and Vehicle Availability Business Characteristics in the Zip Code Commuting Flows (LEHD) Conclusion Appendix Section I - Population and Household Population 2010 Margin of Error (±) 2019 Margin of Error (±) Tract 4070 5,921 566 5,869 643 Oakland 386,909 61 425,097 103 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B01003 Total Population Section II - Age Structure of the Population The Estimates of the Age Demographic in 2019 Tract 4070 Oakland City Estimate (%) Margin of Error (±) Estimate (%) Margin of Error (±) Under 5 years 6.8 3.3 6.3 0.2 5 to 9 years 5.8 2.3 5.2 0.2 10 to 14 years 4.9 2.4 5.5 0.2 15 to 19 years 5.6 3.2 4.9 0.1 20 to 24 years 3.5 1.9 5.6 0.2 25 to 29 years 17.2 4.7 9.9 0.2 30 to 34 years 5.9 3 9.8 0.3 35 to 39 years 6.8 2.8 8.7 0.3 40 to 44 years 3.8 2.2 7.4 0.3 45 to 49 years 6.7 3.1 6.7 0.2 50 to 54 years 7.4 2.9 6 0.2 55 to 59 years 9.1 3.4 5.8 0.2 60 to 64 years 2.4 1.8 5.2 0.3 65 to 69 years 8.1 2.7 4.7 0.2 70 to 74 years 3.9 1.8 3.3 0.2 75 to 79 years 0.8 1 2.1 0.1 80 to 84 years 0.8 0.8 1.5 0.1 85 years and over 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.1 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B01001 Sex by Age Section III - Household Type and Composition Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 and 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, B11016 Household Type by Household Size Section IV - Racial/Ethnic Composition Racial Distribution of Tract 4070 in 2010 and 2019 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2015-2019 American Community Survey, Table B02002: Hispanic or Latino Origin by Race Calculating MOEs for Aggregated Count Data Source: A Compass for Understanding and Using American Community Survey DataWhat General Data Users Need