Results of any preliminary analyses used to decide on an appropriate model for the series. • An account of the model development process. • Parameter estimates for the model you finally choose to fit...

STAT3003 - IN-COURSE ASSESSMENT  This is a take-home assessment which should be handed in to the Statistics Department Oce no later than 12pm on Monday 19th March 2012.  Before you hand in your work, complete and sign the slip below this rubric, cut it o and attach it rmly to your work.  When you submit your work to the departmental oce, please ensure that either Karen, Fiona, or Russell records on their list of students that you have handed your work in.  Non-submission of this assessment may mean that your overall examination mark is recorded as \non-complete", i.e. you may not obtain a pass for the course.  Any plagiarism will normally result in zero marks for all students involved, which may also mean that your overall examination mark is recorded as non-complete. Guidelines as to what constitutes plagiarism may be found in the Departmental Student Handbooks.  Your work will be returned to you for feedback and you will receive a provisional grade | grades are provisional until conrmed by the Statistics Examiners' meeting in June 2012.  You should make time during the tutorial or workshop to study the comments written on your work. You should return the marked work to the lecturer before you leave the tutorial or workshop | your work may be required for perusal by the Visiting Examiner. Declaration: I am aware of the UCL Statistical Science Department's regulations on pla- giarism for assessed coursework. I have read the guidelines in the student handbook, and understand what constitutes plagiarism. I hereby arm that the work I am submitting for this in-course assessment is entirely my own. Signed: Date: Please print your name:STAT3003 - IN-COURSE ASSESSMENT The UK Retail Price Index (RPI) is a measure of the cost of living. It takes into account national changes in the prices of items such as food, transport and accommodation, and is used to calculate quantities such as consumer price in ation. The data that you will be analysing for this ICA are...