Referring to Example 12.1, if the average bid for each competitor who bids stays the same, but their bids exhibit less variability, does Miller’s optimal bid increase or decrease? To study this...

Referring to Example 12.1, if the average bid for each competitor who bids stays the same, but their bids exhibit less variability, does Miller’s optimal bid increase or decrease? To study this question, assume that each competitor’s bid, expressed as a multiple of Miller’s cost to complete the project, follows each of the following distributions.


a.  Triangular with parameters 1.0, 1.3, and 2.4.


b.  Triangular with parameters 1.2, 1.3, and 2.2.


c.  Use @RISK’s Define Distributions window to see that the distributions in parts a and b have the same mean as the original triangular distribution in the example, but smaller standard deviations. What is the common mean? Why is it not the same as the most likely value, 1.3?

Example 12.1