Reconsider the airline mileage data in Table B.l 0 and used in Exercise 4.27.a. Use the additive seasonal effects model for the first six years to develop a forecasting method for this data. How well does this smoothing procedure work?b. Make one-step-ahead forecasts of the last 12 months. Determine the forecast errors. How well did your procedure work in forecasting the new data?c. Compare these forecasts with those found using Winters" multiplicative method in Exercise 4.27. Exercise 4.27 Table B.10 contains seven years of monthly data on the number of airline miles flown in the United Kingdom. This is seasonal data. TABLE B. 10 United Kingdom Airline Miles Flown Month Miles (in millions) Month Miles (in millions) Jan-1964 7.269 Jul-1967 12.222 Feb-1964 6.775 Aug-1967 12.246 Mar-1964 7.819 Sep-1967 13.281 Apr-1964 8.371 Oct-1967 10.366 May-1964 9.069 Nov-1967 8.730 Jun-1964 10.248 Dec-1967 9.614 Ju1-1964 11.030 Jan-1968 8.639 Aug-1964 10.882 Feb-1968 8.772 Sep-1964 10.333 Mar-1968 10.894 Oct-1964 9.109 Apr-1968 10.455 Nov-1964 7.685 May-1968 11.179 Dec-1964 7.682 Jun-1968 10.588 Jan-1965 8.350 Jul-1968 10.794 Feb-1965 7.829 Aug-1968 12.770 Mar-1965 8.829 Sep-1968 13.812 Apr-1965 9.948 Oct-1968 10.857 May-1965 10.638 Nov-1968 9.290 Jun-1965 11.253 Dec-1968 10.925 Jul-1965 11.424 Jan-1969 9.491 Aug-1965 11.391 Feb-1969 8.919 Sep-1965 10.665 Mar-1969 11.607 Oct-1965 9.396 Apr-1969 8.852 Nov-1965 7.775 May-1969 12.537 Dec-1965 7.933 Jun-1969 14.759 Jan-1966 8.186 Jul-1969 13.667 Feb-1966 7.444 Aug-1969 13.731 Mar-1966 8.484 Sep-1969 15.110 Apr-1966 9.864 Oct-1969 12.185 May-1966 10.252 Nov-1969 10.645 Jun-1966 12.282 Dec-1969 12.161 Ju1-1966 11.637 Jan-1970 10.840 Aug-1966 11.577 Feb-1970 10.436 Sep-1966 12.417 Mar-1970 13.589 Oct-1966 9.637 Apr-1970 13.402 Nov-1966 8.094 May-1970 13.103 Dec-1966 9.280 Jun-1970 14.933 Jan-1967 8.334 Ju1-1970 14.147 Feb-1967 7.899 Aug-1970 14.057 Mar-1967 9.994 Sep-1970 16.234 Apr-1967 10.078 Oct-1970 12.389 May-1967 10.801 Nov-1970 11.594 Jun-1967 12.953 Dec-1970 12.772

Reconsider the airline mileage data in Table B.l 0 and used in Exercise 4.27. a. Use the additive seasonal effects model for the first six years to develop a forecasting method for this data. How well...

Reconsider the airline mileage data in Table B.l 0 and used in Exercise 4.27.

a. Use the additive seasonal effects model for the first six years to develop a forecasting method for this data. How well does this smoothing procedure work?

b. Make one-step-ahead forecasts of the last 12 months. Determine the forecast errors. How well did your procedure work in forecasting the new data?

c. Compare these forecasts with those found using Winters" multiplicative method in Exercise 4.27.

Exercise 4.27
Table B.10 contains seven years of monthly data on the number of airline miles flown in the United Kingdom. This is seasonal data.

TABLE B. 10 United Kingdom Airline Miles Flown

Month	Miles (in millions)	Month	Miles (in millions)
Jan-1964	7.269	Jul-1967	12.222
Feb-1964	6.775	Aug-1967	12.246
Mar-1964	7.819	Sep-1967	13.281
Apr-1964	8.371	Oct-1967	10.366
May-1964	9.069	Nov-1967	8.730
Jun-1964	10.248	Dec-1967	9.614
Ju1-1964	11.030	Jan-1968	8.639
Aug-1964	10.882	Feb-1968	8.772
Sep-1964	10.333	Mar-1968	10.894
Oct-1964	9.109	Apr-1968	10.455
Nov-1964	7.685	May-1968	11.179
Dec-1964	7.682	Jun-1968	10.588
Jan-1965	8.350	Jul-1968	10.794
Feb-1965	7.829	Aug-1968	12.770
Mar-1965	8.829	Sep-1968	13.812
Apr-1965	9.948	Oct-1968	10.857
May-1965	10.638	Nov-1968	9.290
Jun-1965	11.253	Dec-1968	10.925
Jul-1965	11.424	Jan-1969	9.491
Aug-1965	11.391	Feb-1969	8.919
Sep-1965	10.665	Mar-1969	11.607
Oct-1965	9.396	Apr-1969	8.852
Nov-1965	7.775	May-1969	12.537
Dec-1965	7.933	Jun-1969	14.759
Jan-1966	8.186	Jul-1969	13.667
Feb-1966	7.444	Aug-1969	13.731
Mar-1966	8.484	Sep-1969	15.110
Apr-1966	9.864	Oct-1969	12.185
May-1966	10.252	Nov-1969	10.645
Jun-1966	12.282	Dec-1969	12.161
Ju1-1966	11.637	Jan-1970	10.840
Aug-1966	11.577	Feb-1970	10.436
Sep-1966	12.417	Mar-1970	13.589
Oct-1966	9.637	Apr-1970	13.402
Nov-1966	8.094	May-1970	13.103
Dec-1966	9.280	Jun-1970	14.933
Jan-1967	8.334	Ju1-1970	14.147
Feb-1967	7.899	Aug-1970	14.057
Mar-1967	9.994	Sep-1970	16.234
Apr-1967	10.078	Oct-1970	12.389
May-1967	10.801	Nov-1970	11.594
Jun-1967	12.953	Dec-1970	12.772

May 21, 2022

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Reconsider the airline mileage data in Table B.l 0 and used in Exercise 4.27. a. Use the additive seasonal effects model for the first six years to develop a forecasting method for this data. How well...

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