PFA

PFA


Question 110 pts Data collected over a five year period in a capital city of a large country reveals that out of 328 new restaurants that were opened only 174 survived for at least a year. This suggests that the probability of a restaurant surviving for at least a year is only 0.53. This is an example of a: Group of answer choices Classical probability Relative frequency probability Subjective probability Conditional probability   Flag question: Question 2 Question 210 pts Which one of these pairs of events is mutually exclusive? Group of answer choices The UK subsidiary of a company makes a loss next year. The Brazilian subsidiary of the company makes a loss next year Compared to the previous year, the number of passengers using Sydney airport falls in March next year. Compared to the previous year, the number of passengers using Sydney airport rises in April next year A company suffers a strike in the next 12 months. A new CEO is appointed to lead the company during the next 12 months The total number of new wind farms built in Scotland next year exceeds four. The total number of new wind farms built in Scotland next year is less than three.   Flag question: Question 3 Question 310 pts The probability that a machine will breakdown in the course of the next year as a result of an electrical fault is 0.1. The probability that it will breakdown in this period as a result of a mistake by the operator is 0.05. These two events are independent. The probability that both events will occur is: Group of answer choices 0.150 0.145 0.005 0.855   Flag question: Question 4 Question 410 pts The probability of a call center receiving over 400 calls on any given day is 0.2. If it does receive this number of calls the probability of the center missing the day’s target on average caller waiting times is 0.7. If 400 calls or less are received the probability of missing this target is 0.1. The probability that the target will be missed on a given day is: Group of answer choices 0.20 0.14 0.22 0.70   Flag question: Question 5 Question 510 pts The number of trains per day that arrive at a destination more than ten minutes late follows the following probability distribution. Number of late trains 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.35 0.10   The expected number of trains per day arriving more than ten minutes late is: Group of answer choices 2.0 2.15 2.25 3.0   Flag question: Question 6 Question 610 pts A company has to decide whether or not to continue with plans to run a conference next June in a hotel. If it decides to continue then it will either make a profit of $1 million or lose $0.8 million. It if decides to cancel it will either lose $0.2 million in compensation payments to participants or, if it is also sued by the hotel, lose a total of $0.6 million. According to the maximin criterion the company should: Group of answer choices Estimate probability for the different payoffs before applying the criterion Continue with the event Be indifferent between continuing with the event of cancelling it Cancel the event   Flag question: Question 7 Question 710 pts A company has to decide whether or not to continue with plans to run a conference next June in a hotel. The probability of a profit of $1 million if the company continues with the conference is 0.6. If it cancels the conference, the probability of losing only $0.2 million is 0.7. According to the expected monetary value (EMV) criterion the company: Group of answer choices Should continue with the event Should be indifferent between continuing with the event or cancelling it Should cancel the event Will be unable to make a decision until other probability estimates are supplied   Flag question: Question 8 Question 810 pts A decision maker’s utilities for $1000, $2000 and $3000 are respectively, 0, 0.3 and 1.0. This indicates that the decision maker is: Group of answer choices Risk averse Risk seeking Risk neutral Risk seeking when small sums of money are involved, but risk averse for larger sums   Flag question: Question 9 Question 910 pts A manager has to decide whether to launch product A or B. Product A has a 0.4 probability of producing a return of $2 million over the next year and a 0.6 probability of yielding a return of $0. It is thought that product B will certainly yield a return of $1.2 million over the next year. The manager’s utilities for the returns of $0, $1.2 million and $2 million are 0, 0.7, and 1.0, respectively. Which of these statements is correct? Group of answer choices The EMV and the expected utility criteria suggest that different products should be launched Of the two products, product A has the lowest expected utility of 0 Of the two products, product A has the lowest expected utility of 0.4 Of the two products, product A has the highest expected monetary value of $0.8 million   Flag question: Question 10 Question 1010 pts According to behavioral decision research, choices involving statements about gains: Group of answer choices Tend to produce risk-averse responses Tend to produce risk-seeking responses Tend to produce risk-neutral responses Tend to produce less accurate responses than those involving losses