Problem 1.73 A laboratory keeps a population of aphids. The probability of an aphid passing a day uneventfully is q


Problem 1.73 A laboratory keeps a population of aphids. The probability of an aphid<br>passing a day uneventfully is q< 1. Given that a day is not uneventful, there is a probability<br>r that the aphid will have one offspring, a probability s that it will have two offspring,<br>and a probability t that it will die of exhaustion, where r+s+t=1. Offspring are ready<br>to reproduce the next day. The fates of different aphids are independent, as are the events<br>of different days. The laboratory starts out with one aphid.<br>Let X, be the number of aphids at the end of n days. Show how to obtain an expression<br>for the PGF d(z) of X„. What is the expected value of X,?<br>Show that the probability of extinction does not depend on q and that if 2r + 3s <1,<br>the aphids will certainly die out. Find the probability of extinction if r=1/5, s=2/5 and<br>1= 2/5.<br>

Extracted text: Problem 1.73 A laboratory keeps a population of aphids. The probability of an aphid passing a day uneventfully is q< 1.="" given="" that="" a="" day="" is="" not="" uneventful,="" there="" is="" a="" probability="" r="" that="" the="" aphid="" will="" have="" one="" offspring,="" a="" probability="" s="" that="" it="" will="" have="" two="" offspring,="" and="" a="" probability="" t="" that="" it="" will="" die="" of="" exhaustion,="" where="" r+s+t="1." offspring="" are="" ready="" to="" reproduce="" the="" next="" day.="" the="" fates="" of="" different="" aphids="" are="" independent,="" as="" are="" the="" events="" of="" different="" days.="" the="" laboratory="" starts="" out="" with="" one="" aphid.="" let="" x,="" be="" the="" number="" of="" aphids="" at="" the="" end="" of="" n="" days.="" show="" how="" to="" obtain="" an="" expression="" for="" the="" pgf="" d(z)="" of="" x„.="" what="" is="" the="" expected="" value="" of="" x,?="" show="" that="" the="" probability="" of="" extinction="" does="" not="" depend="" on="" q="" and="" that="" if="" 2r="" +="" 3s=""><1, the="" aphids="" will="" certainly="" die="" out.="" find="" the="" probability="" of="" extinction="" if="" r="1/5," s="2/5" and="" 1="">

Jun 06, 2022
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