Polling 2004 The 2004 U.S. presidential election was the last presidential election that had a signficant third-party candidate. The official results showed that George W. Bush received 50.7% of the...

Polling 2004 The 2004 U.S. presidential election was the last presidential election that had a signficant third-party candidate. The official results showed that George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote and John Kerry received 48.3%. Ralph Nader, running as a third-party candidate, picked up only 0.4%. After the election, there was much discussion about exit polls, which had initially indicated a different result. Suppose you had taken a random sample of 1000 voters in an exit poll and asked them for whom they had voted.

a) Would you always get 507 votes for Bush and 483 for Kerry?

 b) In 95% of such polls, your sample proportion of voters for Bush should be between what two values?

c) What might be a problem in finding a 95% confidence interval for the true proportions of Nader voters from this sample?

d) Would you expect the sample proportion of Nader votes to vary more, less, or about the same as the sample proportion of Bush votes? Why?