please select the social project first and confirm with me and then proceed further

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please select the social project first and confirm with me and then proceed further



RISK MANAGEMENT 641 Project Risk Management Assessment 2 – Report (Project Budget) (40%) Monte Carlo Simulation Aim of Assessment General To apply risk analysis quantitative techniques to projects Learning Outcome2. Apply quantitative risk analysis using specialist software to create a cost model, and evaluate and analyse the results Select a project. The project can be from your work experience, or a social project (could be the same project as Part A of Assessment 1, but best for learning purposes if the project should be a real future project. Students may use the project from Time Management or Cost Management units). Budget Report (using Monte Carlo Simulation) NOTE: This submission should be produced as a formal project management document, not an academic assignment. Produce a Budget Report: The document is designed to be given to the Project Sponsor for approval. The sponsor is not knowledgeable about the cost estimating process or Monte Carlo simulation. The report must contain the following five sections: 1. Introduction (25%) a. Executive Summary: This section establishes the key elements within the report, including project scope, budget, recommendations, and any other relevant information. Appropriate context must be provided when describing the project, this includes background information on the organization, the intended goals/benefits of the project, and the project and product scope. b. Recommended Baseline Budget: Provide a baseline budget composed of 10-30 cost variables (This is a deterministic estimate based on the most likely value for each cost variable, excluding risk events and contingency). You must structure the budget in a manner consistent with industry best practices. Furthermore, you must explain the source of information used to produce the estimate for each item in the budget (i.e. suppliers, subcontractors, historical costs, etc.). i. Justification of Probability Distribution for One Cost Variable - Explain and justify the selected values (minimum, most likely, and maximum) in the probability distributions for at least one of the cost variables in your Table NOTE: Once you have completed the above deterministic baseline budget, then conduct Monte Carlo Simulation (including correlations). In your cost model for Monte Carlo Simulation you will: · Replace deterministic values in the Recommended Baseline Budget with probability distributions; and · Add two (2) specific risk events to the model. 2. Explanation of Two Risk Events (20%): Provide a brief paragraph or two for each risk event that covers the following key points: -briefly explain what the risk event is and what are the risk key causes. - justify the Probability and Consequences of the risk event in terms of your selected probability distribution values for minimum, most likely, and maximum. (Note: you must choose/explain risk events that if they eventuate they will increase the sponsor’s budget) 3. Contingency & Risk Management (35%) a. Recommendation for Contingency: Recommend a contingency amount. Explain why you are recommending the contingency that you have selected. b. Risk Management: based on the Tornado Chart, explain to the sponsor how you will control and minimise the following to ensure that your contingency is sufficient: i. Most sensitive cost variable (use sensitivity analysis to determine) ii. Most sensitive risk event (use sensitivity analysis to determine) c. Correlation Matrix: Select two correlated variables (i.e. one correlation) from your cost model. Explain why they might be correlated. And the likely nature and strength of this correlation 4. Organisational Policy (15%): Compare and comment on your cost results against the organisational policy that states “it is expected that the Baseline Budget (i.e. excluding contingency) should have an 80% probability of being with a range of -5/+10%.” 5. Appendix: Quick Output Report (No marks): Mandatory and must be included here with numbers and graphics fully legible (failure to include a readable report will likely compromise your marks in other sections). Professional Report Style Presentation (5%) Format Length 2500-3500 words. All assignments should be thoroughly checked for typing, spelling and grammatical errors before being submitted. Students must use the template found in the assignment folder for completing their assignment. Do not change the font, spacing, etc. Please do not add a cover sheet. Submission must be through Turnitin (under the Assessments tab in Blackboard) in MS Word (not PDF) format. All source material MUST be acknowledged and any form of plagiarism will result in the appropriate measures being taken. Do not copy other students’ work or assist by showing your work to others. Late submissions will be penalised as per the Curtin Late Assessment Policy in the Unit Outline. Marking Criteria 1. Introduction 25 2. Explanation of Two Risk Events 20 3. Contingency & Risk Management 35 4. Organizational Policy 15 5. Appendix Quick Output Report No Marks Professional Report Style Presentation 5 Total 100 (marks) RISK MANAGEMENT 641 Project Risk Management Assessment 2 – Report (Project Budget) (40%) Monte Carlo Simulation Aim of Assessment General To apply risk analysis quantitative techniques to projects Learning Outcome2. Apply quantitative risk analysis using specialist software to create a cost model, and evaluate and analyse the results Select a project. The project can be from your work experience, or a social project (could be the same project as Part A of Assessment 1, but best for learning purposes if the project should be a real future project. Students may use the project from Time Management or Cost Management units). Budget Report (using Monte Carlo Simulation) NOTE: This submission should be produced as a formal project management document, not an academic assignment. Produce a Budget Report: The document is designed to be given to the Project Sponsor for approval. The sponsor is not knowledgeable about the cost estimating process or Monte Carlo simulation. The report must contain the following five sections: 1. Introduction (25%) a. Executive Summary: This section establishes the key elements within the report, including project scope, budget, recommendations, and any other relevant information. Appropriate context must be provided when describing the project, this includes background information on the organization, the intended goals/benefits of the project, and the project and product scope. b. Recommended Baseline Budget: Provide a baseline budget composed of 10-30 cost variables (This is a deterministic estimate based on the most likely value for each cost variable, excluding risk events and contingency). You must structure the budget in a manner consistent with industry best practices. Furthermore, you must explain the source of information used to produce the estimate for each item in the budget (i.e. suppliers, subcontractors, historical costs, etc.). i. Justification of Probability Distribution for One Cost Variable - Explain and justify the selected values (minimum, most likely, and maximum) in the probability distributions for at least one of the cost variables in your Table NOTE: Once you have completed the above deterministic baseline budget, then conduct Monte Carlo Simulation (including correlations). In your cost model for Monte Carlo Simulation you will: · Replace deterministic values in the Recommended Baseline Budget with probability distributions; and · Add two (2) specific risk events to the model. 2. Explanation of Two Risk Events (20%): Provide a brief paragraph or two for each risk event that covers the following key points: -briefly explain what the risk event is and what are the risk key causes. - justify the Probability and Consequences of the risk event in terms of your selected probability distribution values for minimum, most likely, and maximum. (Note: you must choose/explain risk events that if they eventuate they will increase the sponsor’s budget) 3. Contingency & Risk Management (35%) a. Recommendation for Contingency: Recommend a contingency amount. Explain why you are recommending the contingency that you have selected. b. Risk Management: based on the Tornado Chart, explain to the sponsor how you will control and minimise the following to ensure that your contingency is sufficient: i. Most sensitive cost variable (use sensitivity analysis to determine) ii. Most sensitive risk event (use sensitivity analysis to determine) c. Correlation Matrix: Select two correlated variables (i.e. one correlation) from your cost model. Explain why they might be correlated. And the likely nature and strength of this correlation 4. Organisational Policy (15%): Compare and comment on your cost results against the organisational policy that states “it is expected that the Baseline Budget (i.e. excluding contingency) should have an 80% probability of being with a range of -5/+10%.” 5. Appendix: Quick Output Report (No marks): Mandatory and must be included here with numbers and graphics fully legible (failure to include a readable report will likely compromise your marks in other sections). Professional Report Style Presentation (5%) Format Length 2500-3500 words. All assignments should be thoroughly checked for typing, spelling and grammatical errors before being submitted. Students must use the template found in the assignment folder for completing their assignment. Do not change the font, spacing, etc. Please do not add a cover sheet. Submission must be through Turnitin (under the Assessments tab in Blackboard) in MS Word (not PDF) format. All source material MUST be acknowledged and any form of plagiarism will result in the appropriate measures being taken. Do not copy other students’ work or assist by showing your work to others. Late submissions will be penalised as per the Curtin Late Assessment Policy in the Unit Outline. Marking Criteria 1. Introduction 25 2. Explanation of Two Risk Events 20 3. Contingency & Risk Management 35 4. Organizational Policy 15 5. Appendix Quick Output Report No Marks Professional Report Style Presentation 5 Total 100 (marks) Downloading and Installing the Decision Tools 8.1.1 1) Go to Decision Tools folder and download the zip your computer: · Decision Tools Suite 8.1.1.zip Extract zip by right clicking onto zip and clicking “Extract All” 2) Both files must be saved in the same folder for the licenses to work properly. See Both Files Circled in Figure 3) Before commencing to install Decision Tools Suite, please ensure that you are connected to Curtin’s network via Curtin’s VPN Client. Instructions access VPN can be found here: https://sslvpn.curtin.edu.au/ Be careful when you get to step 9, do not select test.cisco.com as your VPN: Instead choose Curtin VPN: 4) Open the extracted folder Decision Tools Suite 8.1.1 and run DTSuite8-cust-Setup.exe file to initiate the install and click ‘Next’ Read the License Agreement and accept the terms before proceeding 5) Enter your student ID and proceed to until Setup has successfully installed Decision Tools Suite and click Finish to complete the Install. 6) Run @Risk by double clicking on the @Risk Icon on your desktop. 7) You will get a Usage Reporting notification. Click ‘Yes’ to proceed. 8) You will see the @Risk Addon in Excel
Answered 7 days AfterJun 02, 2022Curtin University

Answer To: please select the social project first and confirm with me and then proceed further

Dr Raghunandan G answered on Jun 07 2022
82 Votes
1. Introduction (25%)
A. Executive Summary: It is discussed both the financial risk of constructing a substation as well as a model for assessing the financial risk of constructing a substation that is based on Monte Carlo simulation. At first, they presented the evaluation index of marriage function social project financial risk assessment and performed an analysis of the primary risk elements in marriage function social project financial risk assessment. The marriage function social project financial risk assessment model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation was built on the basis of this. After that, the validated model was utilized to conduct a financial
risk assessment on a marriage function social project. With a budget of the project are 34090 dollars, the wedding and reception will be accomplished. As available resources and estimated costs for contractual operations become available, the prices will be revised progressively. Quality. The ceremony will be prepared in accordance with the Bride and Groom's wishes. The Bride and Groom must examine all deliveries before they will be locked for the wedding or celebration.
Justification of Probability Distribution for One Cost Variable The Bride, Groom, and PM are accountable for managing. The aim is for the Bride and Groom to appreciate their wedding reception, leaving them with positive memories to last a lifetime.
    Name
    Role
    Authority
    Person A
    Scope Statement / Final approval
    Commitments: Following the approval and completion of a project. The acquisition of cash resources.
    Person B
    Product Owner / Review and approval Charters
    Responsibilities:
Quality assurance and delivery of the project. The acquisition of funds. Confirm any modifications or repairs that need to be made.
    Person C
    Review and approval Contract / Development Manager
    Coordination of all sections of the process is one of your tasks. Ensuring that projects are performed on schedule and within budget. Partners should be updated on the project's progress, and any risks should be identified. Organize contractors to guarantee that the job is completed correctly.
Authority: Extended warranty discussions. Such concerns should be discussed only with parties.
1. The Bride does not already have most of the necessary finances to finish the job.
2. By June 6,2023, the project should be done.
3. The average cost will not exceed $34090.
4. There must be no more than 250 people on the invite list.
The following are key presumptions:
The following are key presumptions:
2. The Bride and Groom will not cancel their wedding plans.
3. Now the project will be finished by June 6,2023 for a total cost of $34090.
The project team is the group organizing wedding and celebration. The objective is to finish the wedding according to the couple's wishes and offer people with a strain and pleasurable experience.
Wedding Components and Steps:
· Apparel
· Reception Venue
· Music
· Printing
· Photography
· Decorations
· Flowers
· Gifts
· Travel
· Others
B Recommended Baseline Budget
The measurement of probability in risk management frequently makes use of probability distributions. It also calculates the total amount of loss that will be sustained by an investment portfolio based on a distribution of the returns that have been experienced in the past. One common statistic used in investment risk management is known as the Value-at-Risk. A flexible budget is a cost of doing business that fluctuates depending on how far the company develops or spreads its products or services. This type of cost of doing business is also known as a cost of doing business that is variable. When there is a decline in the output price, indirect expenses go up; when there is a rise in the output price, indirect expenses go down. Indirect expenses go up when there is a dip in the purchasing and selling demand within an industry. In spite of the fact that the information on uncertainties and associated attributes, such as higher or lower values, ranges of quantities, and prospective costs, cannot be easily taken into consideration, this information can either be calculated or is easily accessible to the general public. In other words, this information can be taken into account. A predictable estimation in the perspective of risks is one that is based on a single numerical value. It should not take into consideration the parameter's order to assess the effects or chance of recurrence. The benchmark budget is used as a comparison in cost estimating to evaluate projected and true expenses. It provides the organization ’s ability to assess the program's performance indicators. This will be impossible to conduct corrective and preventative steps if the benchmark is not established. The cost is compared to a cost estimate, and it is component of project planning phase. Funding takes place early on, but spending guidelines are a cost-effective way to monitor success during installation(L. Bertot, S. Genaud 2018).In this example we have considered total expenses to be 34090 dollars and the actual cost estimate was 18099 dollars. Hence the overlay of this project is 15991 dollars. A statistical graph was plotted and theoretical and statistical values were noted. Individual expense graph was plotted using the details discussed [7].
    Apparel (in dollars)
    Category
    Deterministic Estimate
    Probabilistic Approach
    Over/Under
    Fiancé 1 gown
    3,000.
    2,500
    50
    Fiancé 1 shoes
    3,000
    300
    2,700
    Fiancé 2 ring
    300
    250
    50
    Fiancé 2 shoes
    200
    175
    25
    ring(s)
    10,000
    1,500
    500
    Fiancé 1 headpiece
    500
    500
    0
    Fiancé 1 hosiery
    500
    20
    480
    Fiancé 2 veil/headpiece
    500
    500
    650
    Fiancé 2 hosiery
    500
    1,000
    -500
    Fiancé 2 gown/tuxedo
    1,000
    350
    -500
    Fiancé 1 jewelry
    4,000
    550
    3,450
    Fiancé 2 jewelry
    400
    550
    -150
    Fiancé 1 ring
    2,000
    2,300
    2,700
    Apparel Total
    25,900
    10,495
    9,455
    Category
    Deterministic Estimate
    Probabilistic Approach
    Over/Under
    Room/hall fees
    250
    150
    100
    Tables and chairs
    100
    50
    50
    Food
    0
    0
    0
    Linens
    0
    0
    0
    Cake
    700
    700
    0
    Favors
    50
    28
    22
    Staff
    0
    0
    0
    Reception Total
    1,100
    928
    172
2. Explanation of Two Risk Events
· Unsystematic risk, sometimes referred to as business risk, is a form of risk associated with this particular event. Unsystematic risk, also known as potential losses, can be reduced via diversification. Unsystematic risk with systematic risk represents the overall danger.
· Investment strategy risk that is not contingent on money invested and is attributed to broad market factors is referred to as...
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