(c) Copyright 2018. King’s Own Institute TRIMESTER 1, 2018: BUS700 ECONOMICS Paired-Assignment 1. General information Assessment Type: Critical Review – 2500 words report - Team (Pair) Research...

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Answer To: (c) Copyright 2018. King’s Own Institute TRIMESTER 1, 2018: BUS700 ECONOMICS Paired-Assignment 1....

Shivagya answered on May 23 2020
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Evaluation of Macroeconomic performance of Australia and USA
Executive summary
The report proceeds to try and understand the current economic environment in Australia by taking into account various metrics and drawing in comparisons such as the nation’s GDP growth rate, compared to the Unemployment and inflation rates or the net exports from Australia, checking it against the exchange rate of the US dollar.
The key economic factors of the nation are discussed along with their historic movements to be able to identify trends and cyclical behaviours which are indicative of the Busi
ness Cycle of Bust and Boom, these are analysed to give recommendations & draw conclusions from the economic conditions on the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia).
The cash rates of Australia are discussed against the Federal Reserve Rates of the United States, these also take into consideration the recent and historical factors such as the recent lead taken by the United States Federal Reserve System in its Federal Reserve Fund Rates which overtook the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cash rates which have been maintained constant for nearly 19 months in a row.
The recommendations given and conclusions drawn are strictly the opinions of the researcher and they are to be used only for academic understanding purposes.
Table of Contents
Executive summary    1
Australia’s Real GDP growth rate compared to Unemployment Rate & Inflation Rate    3
Comparing & contrasting the Net Exports of Australia with the Exchange Rates ($)    6
A parallel between Australian Cash rates and the United States Federal Reserve Fund Rates    8
Recommendations & Conclusions    10
References    12
Australia’s Real GDP growth rate compared to Unemployment Rate & Inflation Rate
    
To begin to understand our analysis we start with the comparison of the real GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate. Shared with this report are certain statistics on the real GDP growth rate of Australia and also statistics which pertain to the Australian unemployment rate. From a prima facie glance one can tell the relationship between them. Such as the fall in the growth rate of the GDP in 2009 also mirrors a spike in the unemployment rate in the same year. A spike in the GDP growth rate as in 2007 is reflective of the lowering unemployment rates in the same and the coming year which also tells us about the duration of the effect of a spike in the growth rate (real GDP). The stabilization of the Australian real GDP growth rate after 2013 is also reflected in the stability of the unemployment rates after 2013. Thus a conclusion can be drawn between the Gross Domestic Product of Australia, which is the net sum of value of all the good and services produced in Australia in a specific time period. (Rateinflation.com. 2018)
    Australia’s GDP-real growth rate (%)
    Unemployment rate (%)
    Year
    4.3
    7.5
    1999
    4.7
    6.4
    2000
    3.6
    6.3
    2002
    3
    6
    2003
    3.5
    5.1
    2004
    2.7
    5.1
    2005
    2.7
    4.9
    2006
    4.3
    4.4
    2007
    2.3
    4.2
    2008
    1.2
    5.6
    2009
    2.7
    5.1
    2010
    2
    5.1
    2011
    3.6
    5.2
    2012
    2.5
    5.7
    2013
    2.9
    5.8
    2016
    2.2
    5.6
    2017
    Year
    Historical Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Australia (1999 to 2018)
    Inflation Rate (%)
    1999
    68.4
    1.5
    2000
    71.5
    4.5
    2001
    74.6
    4.3
    2002
    76.9
    3.1
    2003
    79
    2.7
    2004
    80.8
    2.3
    2005
    83
    2.7
    2006
    85.9
    3.5
    2007
    87.9
    2.3
    2008
    91.8
    4.4
    2009
    93.4
    1.7
    2010
    96.1
    2.9
    2011
    99.3
    3.3
    2012
    101
    1.7
    2013
    103.5
    2.5
    2014
    106
    2.5
    2015
    107.6
    1.5
    2016
    109
    1.3
    2017
    111.1
    1.9
As we compare and contrast the real GDP growth rate with the unemployement trends in the same time frame, we see that there are some quite significant mirrored facts in both graphs such as spike and the drop right before the 2009 depression, which points to the the rise and fall on interest rates with respect to the real GDP rate of growth. The Australian economy should really be bouyed by the stronger and more volumous exports done, adtionally to this the non-mining investment is predicted to grow at a good enough pace which will surely be supported by the slightly loose monetary poicy, growth and growth rate of population, along with the dynamic global enconomy activity. This is despite the point that meager work emplyoyment with needs and the high level of house-hold debt which might continue to pull downt the economy by burdening it. The expected GDP growth rates for the coming two years have been forecasted to be about 2.7 % in 2018 and 2.7 % again in the year 2019. As we monitor the figures closely we see the emeregence of a pattern based on the business cycle between the 2 comparisons drawn. The unemployment rate can be seen to continously fall over the specifiec period with there being smaller spikes or fluctuations which are reflective of the ecoomic conditions in Australia with respect to the US and its own history. The pattern is less consistent yet observable when it comes to the Consumer Price Index fluctutations and the Interest Rates. (Rateinflation.com. 2018)
The understanding one derives from the above data is that the higher unemployment and the Exports and Imports between US and Australia is that the unemployment rates trigger fluctuations in the national output of the country and the effect is partially visibly by the changes in the GDP growth rate (real) and this in turn puts pressure on the government to alter the interest rates to recover or manage these fluctuations to a better degree. The business cycle following the bust & boom with malinvestment in various sectors in federal spending and businesses led to these fluctuations.
(Argy, V.E. and Nevile, J. eds., 2016)
Comparing & contrasting the Net Exports of Australia with the Exchange Rates ($)
    Year
    Exports ($ billion)
    Imports ($ billion)
    Net exports ($...
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