Opinion polls attempt to predict the results oflocal, state and federal elections. Discuss six reasons why the results of theopinion poll and the outcome of the election may differ. In each case...

Critics of public opinion polls have outlined a number of shortcomings inherent in
scientific polls that are used, largely, to extract an understanding of the attitudes of the general
population. Among them, sampling error, question wording, question ordering, and non-response
have been some of the most commonly studied. A non-attitude, by definition, is the lack of an
opinion on a given topic, and in the context of opinion polls it manifests itself in two ways.
The first and more common is the absence of sufficient knowledge regarding the topic
under debate, and the second is a lack of concern or interest on the topic in the presence of an
understanding of the subject matter. Many concede that it is crucial for polls to present the option
for subjects to indicate no opinion or neutrality on an issue, but is from observations such as
these that we begin to see the other side of the coin. (Rosenthal, 2003) disclosed, for example,
that along with genuinely non-attitude respondents, additional individuals will often incorrectly
select a one of these choices due to an inability to choose among contending positions. Tom
Smith further identifies in his 1984 evaluation of survey responses that individuals will also
select a neutral choice if they are too insecure to take a stance, hesitant to disclose their position
on an issue, have little interest but in fact hold an opinion on the issue, or wish to avoid selecting
an offensive or controversial response (Are Opinion Polls Useful?, 2011).
Lastly and probably most concerning, (Rosenthal, 2003) elucidate the serious error that
arises when respondents will choose „don‟t know‟ in order to avoid additional questions or to
save time. Indeed, if an option to mark “don‟t know” is originally included in a poll for the
purpose of measuring the people that genuinely have insufficient education on a topic, it
shockingly often ends up taking the role of an „opt-out‟...