Now assume a Bayesian model that sets the prior distribution for Florida’s election night spread d to be Normal with expected value µ and standard deviation τ . What are the interpretations of µ and...

Now assume a Bayesian model that sets the prior distribution for Florida’s election night spread d to be Normal with expected value µ and standard deviation τ . What are the interpretations of µ and τ?

A. µ and τ are arbitrary numbers that let us make probability statements about d.

B. µ and τ summarize what we would predict for Florida before seeing any polls. Based on past elections, we would set µ close to 0 because both Republicans and Democrats have won, and τ at about 0.02, because these elections tend to be close.

C. µ and τ summarize what we want to be true. We therefore set µ at 0.10 and τ at 0.01.

D. The choice of prior has no effect on Bayesian Analysis.