Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records)...

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Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past 11 years. Monica notes that forecasted landfall has been different from actual observed landfall as shown in the table below.

YEAR ACTUAL (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 24-HOUR FORECAST (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN)

1 4 6
2 5 5
3 30 40
4 2 10
5 12 13
6 7 5
7 11 11
8 21 25
9 12 8
10 12 15
11 6 9
How accurate has the forecast been? Do you think this difference matters to a beach town? Can you develop a forecasting system model that may be more accurate? Explain your methodology and ideas in a paper of at least 5 pages. Be sure to research sources to support your ideas, and integrate the sources by providing at least 4 research references including your text:
References
Render, B., Stair, R. M. Jr., Hanna, M. E., Hale, T. S. (2015).
Quantitative analysis for

management
(12^th
ed.). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Education, Inc.
Be sure to use APA style, and cite and reference your sources using in-text citations and a reference page to avoid plagiarism.
Additionally, use Times New Roman 12pt. double-spaced

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Unit VIII Assignment Due February 3, 2017 Please Read and review for the Unit VIII assignment, refer to Section 5.4 in Chapter 5: Forecasting Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past 11 years. Monica notes that forecasted landfall has been different from actual observed landfall as shown in the table below. YEAR ACTUAL (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 24-HOUR FORECAST (MILES FROM JOHNSTOWN) 1 4 6 2 5 5 3 30 40 4 2 10 5 12 13 6 7 5 7 11 11 8 21 25 9 12 8 10 12 15 11 6 9 How accurate has the forecast been? Do you think this difference matters to a beach town? Can you develop a forecasting system model that may be more accurate? Explain your methodology and ideas in a paper of at least 5 pages. Be sure to research sources to support your ideas, and integrate the sources by...

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Robert · Accepted Answer

1 
RUNNING HEADER: FORECASTING
Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. From the record of the office 
she notes that in past 11 years near the city of Johnstown hurricanes have made the landfall on 
the coast and she notes that the landfall forecasted by her is different from the actual landfall 
observed. To know the how well forecast have been measure of accuracy is calculated for the 
available records. To check or calculate the measure of accuracy the forecasted values are 
compared with that of observed or the actual values as per the records. The forecasted error or 
deviation is calculated firstly which is defined as: 
    Forecasted error = Actual Value – Forecasted Value. 
Now after the calculation of Forecasted error, accuracy will be measured. One of the methods to 
measure the accuracy is Mean absolute Deviation (MAD). The mean absolute deviation is 
computed by firstly taking sum of absolute values of individual forecasted errors and after that it 
is divided by numbers of errors (denoted by n) 
MAD = ∑ |Forecasted Error| 
n
There are other methods as well to calculate the measure of accuracy besides the Mean Absolute 
Deviation method. One other common method to calculate the measure of accuracy is mean 
squared error (MSE). MSE is the average of the squared errors which is computed as below: 
MSE =  ∑ (Error)
 2
 
N
2 
FORECASTING 
Apart from Mean absolute Deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE) there is another 
method known as mean absolute percent error (MAPE) which is also sometimes used to measure 
the accuracy. MAPE is average of absolute values of errors. It is expressed as the percentages of 
actual values and the same is computed as follows: 
MAPE = ∑ | Error/ Actual|    100% 
  n
There is one other common term “Bias” which is also associated with the error in the forecasting. 
Bias is average error which tells that whether the forecast done is showing results which are too 
low or too high and by how much. The bias thus may be positive or negative. The results 
computed from this method are not good measure of actual size of errors because in this case 
negative errors coming can cancel out positive errors.

Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past...

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