Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records) that hurricanes have made landfall on the coast somewhere near their city of Johnstown in the past...

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Answered Same DayDec 25, 2021

Answer To: Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. She notes (from the office records)...

Robert answered on Dec 25 2021
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1
RUNNING HEADER: FORECASTING
Monica works at a regional weather office on the Atlantic coast. From the record of the office
she notes that in past 11 years near the city of Johnstown hurricanes have made the landfall o
n
the coast and she notes that the landfall forecasted by her is different from the actual landfall
observed. To know the how well forecast have been measure of accuracy is calculated for the
available records. To check or calculate the measure of accuracy the forecasted values are
compared with that of observed or the actual values as per the records. The forecasted error or
deviation is calculated firstly which is defined as:
Forecasted error = Actual Value – Forecasted Value.
Now after the calculation of Forecasted error, accuracy will be measured. One of the methods to
measure the accuracy is Mean absolute Deviation (MAD). The mean absolute deviation is
computed by firstly taking sum of absolute values of individual forecasted errors and after that it
is divided by numbers of errors (denoted by n)
MAD = ∑ |Forecasted Error|
n
There are other methods as well to calculate the measure of accuracy besides the Mean Absolute
Deviation method. One other common method to calculate the measure of accuracy is mean
squared error (MSE). MSE is the average of the squared errors which is computed as below:
MSE = ∑ (Error)
2

N
2
FORECASTING
Apart from Mean absolute Deviation (MAD) and mean squared error (MSE) there is another
method known as mean absolute percent error (MAPE) which is also sometimes used to measure
the accuracy. MAPE is average of absolute values of errors. It is expressed as the percentages of
actual values and the same is computed as follows:
MAPE = ∑ | Error/ Actual| 100%
n
There is one other common term “Bias” which is also associated with the error in the forecasting.
Bias is average error which tells that whether the forecast done is showing results which are too
low or too high and by how much. The bias thus may be positive or negative. The results
computed from this method are not good measure of actual size of errors because in this case
negative errors coming can cancel out positive errors.
In the...
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