METHOD(8) involves the second of four naiveratioconcepts and is more involved than was the previous method because the concept of lagging is once again implemented. METHOD(8) is called the Lagged, Adjacent Ratio Naive Method and infers that the forecast is related to theratiothat occurred L-time periods ago. The understanding of subscripts is very essential at this point, but hopefully you have mastered it by now.
This is my 3pt extra credit I really need! I have done the first two myself. Due nov. 18 11pm but would like to have earlier if possible. Analyze Ford Stock Review the link (WILL GIVE THIS TO YOU IF INTERESTED –MSG ME ) on downloading small data sets and get fifteen closing prices for Ford (symbol F) starting with Monday January 9th, 2012. Once you have done that, use Methods 1, 2 and 3 on this data set (with lags of 2,3,4 and 5 where appropriate), and determine the TCBF, the BIAS, the TCUF, the MEMO forecast and the MSE for each one. Finally determine which of the six forecasting results is the best one and summarize your results in a MEMO similar to (but not exactly like!!!) that given in the web page example. This is a BONUS problem and so it is optional. But if you do it and submit something credible to the dropbox under "FORD" then I will give you up to three extra credit points depending on how complete and/or accurate your submittal is. Let's have this assignment due by the end of the third quiz.
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