Let denote the unemployment rate next year. Determine your subjective probability density for . Can it be matched with a gJe(a, {3) density? For each planet in our solar system, determine (i) the...

Let

denote the unemployment rate next year. Determine your subjective probability density for
. Can it be matched with a gJe(a, {3) density?

For each planet in our solar system, determine

(i) the first and third quartiles of your prior distribution for the (average) distance of the planet from the sun (i.e., specify a "central" interval which you think has a 50% chance of containing the distance);

(ii) specify a "central" 90% interval for the distance. Next, look up the correct distances, and calculate the percentage of the time that your 50% intervals contained the true distance, and the percentage of the time that your 90% intervals contained the true distance. What can you conclude?