Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul. The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million. Kim expects that the hotel will produce positive cash flows of $3 million a year at the end of each of the next 20 years. The project's cost of capital is 13%.
While Kim expects the cash flows to be $3 million a year, it recognizes that the cash flows could, in fact, be much higher or lower, depending on whether the Korean government imposes a large hotel tax. One year from now, Kim will know whether the tax will be imposed. There is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be only $2.2 million. At the same time, there is a 50% chance that the tax will not be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be $3.8 million. Kim is deciding whether to proceed with the hotel today or to wait 1 year to find out whether the tax will be imposed. If Kim waits a year, the initial investment will remain at $20 million. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13%.
The data has been collected in the Microsoft Excel Online file below. Open the spreadsheet and perform the required analysis to answer the questions below.
Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 5.62% and the risk-free rate is 7%. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.22 million should be entered as 1.22, not 1,220,000. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to two decimal places.
$ ______millions
Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis |
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No Timing Option: |
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Initial investment at t = 0 (in millions) |
$20.00 |
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Annual expected cash flow (in millions) |
$3.00 |
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Number of years cash flow expected |
20 |
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Project cost of capital |
13% |
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Timing Option: |
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Initial investment at t = 1 (in millions) |
$20.00 |
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Number of years cash flow expected |
20 |
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Probability that tax will be imposed |
50% |
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Annual CF if tax will be imposed, Years 2 to 21 |
$2.20 |
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Probability that tax will not be imposed |
50% |
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Annual CF if tax will not be imposed, Years 2 to 21 |
$3.80 |
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Projected cost of capital |
13% |
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PV of CFs (in millions) at t = 1, if tax will be imposed |
$15.45 |
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PV of CFs (in millions) at t = 1, if tax will not be imposed |
$26.69 |
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PV of Expected CFs (in millions) at t = 1, with timing option |
$21.07 |
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Value of Option Using Black-Scholes Model: |
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Number of years until expiration expires |
1 |
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Variance of project's expected rate of return, σ2
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5.62% |
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Risk-free rate of return, rRF
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7.00% |
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Strike price (in millions) of underlying investment at t = 0, X |
$20.00 |
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Formulas |
Price (in millions) of underlying investment, P = |
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#N/A |
d1 = |
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N(d1) = |
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d2 = |
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#N/A |
N(d2) = |
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#N/A |
Value of option (in millions) = |
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#N/A |
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