Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul. The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million. Kim expects that the hotel will produce positive...


Kim Hotels is interested in developing a new hotel in Seoul. The company estimates that the hotel would require an initial investment of $20 million. Kim expects that the hotel will produce positive cash flows of $3 million a year at the end of each of the next 20 years. The project's cost of capital is 13%.


While Kim expects the cash flows to be $3 million a year, it recognizes that the cash flows could, in fact, be much higher or lower, depending on whether the Korean government imposes a large hotel tax. One year from now, Kim will know whether the tax will be imposed. There is a 50% chance that the tax will be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be only $2.2 million. At the same time, there is a 50% chance that the tax will not be imposed, in which case the yearly cash flows will be $3.8 million. Kim is deciding whether to proceed with the hotel today or to wait 1 year to find out whether the tax will be imposed. If Kim waits a year, the initial investment will remain at $20 million. Assume that all cash flows are discounted at 13%.


The data has been collected in the Microsoft Excel Online file below. Open the spreadsheet and perform the required analysis to answer the questions below.




Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 5.62% and the risk-free rate is 7%. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.22 million should be entered as 1.22, not 1,220,000. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to two decimal places.


$ ______millions
















































































































































































































































































Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis
No Timing Option:
Initial investment at t = 0 (in millions)$20.00
Annual expected cash flow (in millions)$3.00
Number of years cash flow expected20
Project cost of capital13%
Timing Option:
Initial investment at t = 1 (in millions)$20.00
Number of years cash flow expected20
Probability that tax will be imposed50%
Annual CF if tax will be imposed, Years 2 to 21$2.20
Probability that tax will not be imposed50%
Annual CF if tax will not be imposed, Years 2 to 21$3.80
Projected cost of capital13%
PV of CFs (in millions) at t = 1, if tax will be imposed$15.45
PV of CFs (in millions) at t = 1, if tax will not be imposed$26.69
PV of Expected CFs (in millions) at t = 1, with timing option$21.07
Value of Option Using Black-Scholes Model:
Number of years until expiration expires1
Variance of project's expected rate of return,  σ2
5.62%
Risk-free rate of return, rRF
7.00%
Strike price (in millions) of underlying investment at t = 0, X$20.00
Formulas
Price (in millions) of underlying investment, P =#N/A
d1
=
#N/A
N(d1) =#N/A
d2
=
#N/A
N(d2) =#N/A
Value of option (in millions) =#N/A
Jun 03, 2022
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