Kenneth Brown is facing three alternatives with two possible outcomes—a favorable or an unfavorable market—for those alternatives. In no less than fourpages, describe and justify the decisionmaking...

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Kenneth Brown is facing three alternatives with two possible outcomes—a favorable or an unfavorable market—for those alternatives. In no less than fourpages, describe and justify the decisionmaking steps Brown may perform in his case. What decision would you make?Please provide 4research references including your text:




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Case Study (Due Date January 16, 2017) Please Read and review for assignment: Chapter 3 Decision Analysis, pp. 65-68 See Problem 3-17 on page 101 of the textbook: Render, B., Stair, R. M. Jr., Hanna, M. E., Hale, T. S. (2015). Quantitative analysis for management (12th ed.). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Education, Inc. Kenneth Brown is facing three alternatives with two possible outcomes—a favorable or an unfavorable market—for those alternatives. In no less than four pages, describe and justify the decision making steps Brown may perform in his case. What decision would you make? Please provide 4 research references including your text: References Render, B., Stair, R. M. Jr., Hanna, M. E., Hale, T. S. (2015). Quantitative analysis for management (12th ed.). Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Education, Inc. to support your ideas. Be sure to use APA style, and cite and reference your sources using in-text citations and a reference page to avoid plagiarism. Additionally, use Times New Roman 12pt. double-spaced font. Please refer to the following problem in order to answer the question: PROBLEM 3-17 Kenneth Brown is the principal owner of Brown Oil, Inc. After quitting his university teaching job, Ken was able to increase his annual salary by a factor of over 100. At the present time, Ken is forced to consider purchasing some equipment for Brown Oil because of competition. His alternatives are shown in the following table: EQUIPMENT  FAVORABLE MARKET ($)  UNFAVORABLE MARKET ($) Sub 100  300,000  -200,000 Oiler J  250,000  -100,000 Texan  75,000  -18,000  For example, If Ken purchases a Sub 100 and there is a favorable market, he will realize a profit of $300,000. On the other hand, if the market is unfavorable Ken will suffer a...



Answered Same DayDec 25, 2021

Answer To: Kenneth Brown is facing three alternatives with two possible outcomes—a favorable or an unfavorable...

David answered on Dec 25 2021
127 Votes
1
Running Header: Decision Making under Uncertainty

Kenneth Brown in the present case does not know whether market will be favorable or
unfavorable, so he is facing decision to purchase any equipment out of t
he three equipments
available in an uncertain market. The decision taken today will have impact on all future
outcomes and one decision may make difference between successful and unsuccessful way. So
for taking the decision in a right way decision theory approach should be followed which is
systematic and analytic approach to the study of the decision making. There are six steps in
Decision theory which are as below:
1. Clearly define problem at hand
2. List all the possible alternatives
3. Identify all the possible outcomes and state of nature
4. List out payoff of each of the combination of alternatives and the outcomes
5. Select one decision theory models
6. Apply model selected and make the decision
Kenneth Brown should follow the steps of decision theory for the decision making in the
following way:
Step 1: Being the principal owner of the Brown Oil, Inc., Ken is forced to consider
purchasing of some equipment for the company because of the competition. He has to
identify different equipments available and make a decision that he thinks is best for its
organization.
Step 2: Kenneth identifies three alternatives for the decision making:
a) Buy equipment Sub 100
b) Buy Equipment Oiler J
c) Buy Equipment Texan
2
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Step 3: The next step involves the task of identifying all the possible outcomes and state of
nature of the various alternatives available. In decision theory, outcomes over which decision
maker has no control or have little control are called as state of nature. The possible outcomes
are as below:
a) Sub 100: If market is favorable, on one hand he will realize the profit of $ 300,000, on
the other hand if market is unfavorable than ken will suffer loss of $ 200,000.
b) Oiler J: If market is favorable, on one hand he will realize the profit of $ 250,000, on the
other hand if market is unfavorable than ken will suffer...
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