Jasmine believes that the thumbtack has an 80% probability of landing pin down. Winston believes that this probability is closer to 40%. When the instructor flips the tack, however, it lands pin up....

Jasmine believes that the thumbtack has an 80% probability of landing pin down. Winston believes that this probability is closer to 40%. When the instructor flips the tack, however, it lands pin up. What may we conclude from this event?

a. Jasmine's belief about the tack's probability of landing pin down was incorrect. It should have been much less.

b. Winston's belief reflects reality more accurately than Jasmine's.

c. The probability of landing pin down is actually 80%, but Jasmine just got a bad outcome.

d. None of the above.