In the attached journal paper, the Towers proposes a model for the H1N1 influenza Pandemic in...

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In the attached journal paper, the Towers proposes a model for the H1N1 influenza Pandemic in 2009.The Gurevich paper uses a similar model. Many of the assumption are common between the two authors, with one important difference. Gurevich makes an assumption not included in the Towers model. Explain the Gurevich model and the differences between the two Towers and Gurevich models. Why do you think Towers did not include this aspect of the model? Write a short report (1) describing the models, (2) the simplifying assumptions that went into the models, (3) the purpose of the models and (4) how the models should be validated.

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Theoretical Biology and Medical BioMed Central Modelling Open Access Commentary Formal kinetics of H1N1 epidemic Konstantin G Gurevich Address: UNESCO Chair in Healthy Life for Sustainable Development, Moscow State University of Medicine and Dentistry (MSDMU), Delegatskaya Street 20/1, 127473, Moscow, Russia Email: Konstantin G Gurevich - [email protected] Published: 15 September 2009 Received: 20 July 2009 Accepted: 15 September 2009 Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 2009, 6:23 doi:10.1186/1742-4682-6-23 This article is available from: http://www.tbiomed.com/content/6/1/23 © 2009 Gurevich; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract Background: The formal kinetics of the H1N1 epidemic seems to take the form of an exponential curve. There is a good correlation between this theoretical model and epidemiological data on the number of H1N1-infected people. But this formal model leads to paradoxes about the dates when everyone becomes infected: in Mexico this will happen after one year, then in the rest of the world. Further implications of the formal model: The general limitations of this formal kinetics model are discussed. More detailed modeling is examined and the implications are examined in the light of currently available data. The evidence indicates that not more than 10% of the population is initially resistant to the H1N1 virus. Conclusion: We are probably only at the initial stage of development of the H1N1 epidemic. Increasing the number of H1N1-resistant people in future (e.g. due to vaccination) may influence the dynamics of epidemic development. At present, the development of the epidemic depends only on the number of people in the population who are initially resistant to the...

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Robert · Accepted Answer

Asingment :- 
Ans – According to the journals attached , in the first model i,e, the gurevich model – the kinetics 
obtained from this states that the H1N1 epidemic is still not taken place in pandemic conditions as it 
is on its initial stage and there might be less casualities to be reported in future because the people 
have become more aware and are getting vaccinated for this disease ,as the epidemic ratio depends 
on the number of people suffering to that of the area of the epidemic .the formal kinetic model 
states that the epidemic in the country showed a variation from zero time till the recent report 
submitted by WHO ,which showed a great spread of this disease . 
so the kinetics is described in the form of equation – 
                                                N= a exp(bt+c)        where n is the total no of infected people                                                                                          
a ,b, c are constant values and t is time .here the correlation between the two models have been 
taken which further gives the record of the ratio of the suffers to that of the people who have been 
vaccinated .following the equation ; 
              dN /dt = bn  where  
where coefficient b is proportional to the velocity of the process.  It also enfers that the people who 
were vaccinated at the initial stage has not been infected by the H1N1 virus .but coefficient b is 
changed its power from USA to china with a least difference in the ratio.in this model the total 
kinetics shows the spread of the epidemic in the world comparing the data from 2009 to 2011 in 
different countries . which says that  in 2009 UK had maximum number of suffers in comparison to 
Canada and china , but in 2011 mexico and USA  were the cities with the highest record of the 
sufferers .but in near future the ratio of suffers will become less subjected to the vaccination 
programme .

In the attached journal paper, the Towers proposes a model for the H1N1 influenza Pandemic in 2009.The Gurevich paper uses a similar model. Many of the assumption are common between the two authors,...

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