In baseball, a team’s success is often thought to be a function of the team’s hitting and pitching performance. One measure of hitting performance is the number of home runs the team hits, and one measure of pitching performance is the earned run average for the team’s pitching staff. It is generally believed that teams that hit more home runs and have a lower earned run average will win a higher percentage of the games played. The following data show the proportion of games won, the number of team home runs (HR), and the earned run average (ERA) for the 16 teams in the National League for the 2003 Major League Baseball season
Proportion
Team
Won
HR
ERA
Arizona
0.519
152
3.857
Milwaukee
0.420
196
5.058
Atlanta
0.623
235
4.106
Montreal
0.512
144
4.027
Chicago
0.543
172
3.842
New York
0.410
124
4.517
Cincinnati
0.426
182
5.127
Philadelphia
0.531
166
4.072
Colorado
0.457
198
5.269
Pittsburgh
0.463
163
4.664
Florida
0.562
157
4.059
San Diego
0.395
128
4.904
Houston
0.537
191
3.880
San Francisco
0.621
180
3.734
Los Angeles
0.525
3.162
St. Louis
4.642
a. Determine the estimated regression equation that could be used to predict the proportion of games won given the number of team home runs.
b. Determine the estimated regression equation that could be used to predict the proportion of games won given the earned run average for the team’s pitching staff.
c. Determine the estimated regression equation that could be used to predict the proportion of games won given the number of team home runs and the earned run average for the team’s pitching staff.
d. For the 2003 season San Diego won only 39.5% of the games they played, the lowest in the National League. To improve next year’s record, the team is trying to acquire new players who will increase the number of team home runs to 180 and decrease the earned run average for the team’s pitching staff to 4.0. Use the estimated regression equation developed in part (c) to estimate the percentage of games San Diego will win if they have 180 team home runs and have an earned run average of 4.0.
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