(I) Consider monthly demand for the ABC Electronics for flat screen TVs as shown in following figure. (a) Forecast the monthly demand for year 6 using moving average, simple exponential smoothing with...

(I)

Consider monthly demand for the ABC Electronics for flat screen TVs as shown in following figure. (a) Forecast the monthly demand for year 6 using moving average, simple exponential smoothing with different time periods for moving average, and smoothing constants for exponential smoothing method. In each case, evaluate the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE. Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why?

(II)

Using Holt's model and Winter's model, repeat the same monthly demand data. Compare the performance of two models based on the bias, TS, MAD, MAPE, and MSE. Which of the two models( Multiplicative or additive) do you prefer? Why?

Hints: Plot the graphs of MAD or MSE as a function of exponential smoothing constant which was either an increasing or decreasing. And use Solver the optimal constant values.