For each of these, there are potentially different ways one could answer the question. Any answer that is consistent with some interpretation of one of these theories should be acceptable. Sometimes they may have more/fewer steps.
1. Countries with democratic institutions are less likely to go to war with one another (1.5 pts)
2. Countries in alliances are more likely to fight wars (1.5 pts)
3. Grievances lead to civil wars (1.5 pts)
4. Nuclear proliferation leads to peace (1.5 pts)
5. Bonus: propose your own theory about international relations phenomena, describe
the causal mechanism and what pieces of evidence you would find convincing
Microsoft Word - Assignment 3.docx Assignment 3 Due: March 31st at Midnight on Turnitin For each of the following theories/hypotheses, map out at least one causal mechanism (i.e. the steps that the theory is proposing to get from one causal factor/independent variable to some outcome/dependent variable). In some cases there could be multiple pathways linking the two factors. For each step along the causal chain, describe some things we should see in the world if the theory was correct. For example, balance of power theory argues that hegemonic bids (one state trying to obtain hegemony, e.g. Napoléon’s France in the Napoleonic wars) lead to alliance formations against the potential hegemon. Hegemonic bids à other states fear the state bidding for hegemony à other states ally to stop the potential hegemon -If the first part of the argument is true, we should see lots of evidence of leaders expressing fear of the state trying to obtain hegemony, perhaps publicly or in other places (e.g. in their diaries). -If the second part of the argument is true, we should see alliances between weaker states. We should see very little bandwagoning (i.e. few countries should ally with the rising power), and relatively little buckpassing. For each of these, there are potentially different ways one could answer the question. Any answer that is consistent with some interpretation of one of these theories should be acceptable. Sometimes they may have more/fewer steps. 1. Countries with democratic institutions are less likely to go to war with one another (1.5 pts) 2. Countries in alliances are more likely to fight wars (1.5 pts) 3. Grievances lead to civil wars (1.5 pts) 4. Nuclear proliferation leads to peace (1.5 pts) 5. Bonus: propose your own theory about international relations phenomena, describe the causal mechanism and what pieces of evidence you would find convincing (0.5 pts)