In 2005, United Airlines announced that it would award 500 frequent flier miles to every traveler on flights that arrived more than 30 minutes late on all flights departing from Chicago O'Hare to...

1. 
   In 2005, United Airlines announced that it would award 500 frequent flier miles to every traveler on flights that arrived more than 30 minutes late on all flights departing from Chicago O'Hare to seven other hub airports (see
   The Wall Street Journal,
   June 14, 2005). On a randomly chosen day (Tuesday, April 26, 2005), the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website (www.bts.gov) showed 278 United Airlines departures from O'Hare. The data is provided in the file UniteAir.csv.  Use R to compute the mean delay, the quartiles for the delay, the range and the standard deviation of the delay.  Use R to construct a box plot.  How many outliers are there?  What is the probability of a traveler receiving a frequent flyer bonus?   (5 points)
   


2. 
   Baxter Inc. is a medium-sized maker of lawn furniture. Their business is doing well and they are considering building a new manufacturing plant to handle potential increased sales next year. Will next year's demand for lawn furniture be up (U) or down (D)? Baxter's own financial staff estimates a 60 percent chance that demand for lawn furniture will be up next year (P(U) = 0.6). These are their
   prior
   probabilities.
   

But Baxter's financial staff is not experienced in macroeconomic forecasting. Baxter is considering whether to engage an expert market analyst who has wide experience in forecasting demand for consumer goods. In terms of predicting directional (+ or −) changes in demand, she has been correct 80 percent of the time. If the expert is hired, Baxter could revise its estimate, using two conditional probabilities: P(Expert says “up”|U) = 0.8   P(Expert says “down”|D) = 0.8

What Baxter really wants to know is the chance the demand will go up
if
the expert says the demand will go up (P(U|Expert says “up”).  Compute this probability for Baxter.  (5 points)