EXERCISES 379 c. as a rule, the traffic on the Beltway is heavy d. the traffic on the Beltway can be heavy at times e. the traffic on the Beltway is invariably heavy f. typically, the traffic on the...

EXERCISES 379
c. as a rule, the traffic on the Beltway is heavy d. the traffic on the Beltway can be heavy at times e. the traffic on the Beltway is invariably heavy f. typically, the traffic on the Beltway is heavy g. the traffic on the Beltway is likely to be heavy most of the time
Exercise 10-11 In which of the following arguments is the implied confidence level too high or low, given the premises? After you have decided, compare your results with those of three or four classmates.
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. We spent a day on the Farallon Islands last June, and was it ever foggy and cold! So, dress warmly when you go there this June. Based on our experience, it is 100 percent certain to be foggy and cold.
2. We've visited the Farallon Islands on five different days, two during the summer and one each during fall, winter, and spring. It's been foggy and cold every time we've been there. So, dress warmly when you go there. Based on our experience, there is an excellent chance it will be foggy and cold whenever you go. 3. We've visited the Farallon Islands on five different days, all in June. It's been foggy and cold every time we've been there. So, dress warmly when you go there in June. Based on our experience, it could well be foggy and cold. 4. We've visited the Farallon Islands on five different days, all in June. It's been foggy and cold every time we've been there. So, dress warmly when you go there in June. Based on our experience, there is a small chance it will be foggy and cold. 5. We've visited the Farallon Islands on five different days, all in January. It's been foggy and cold every time we've been there. So, dress warmly when you go there in June. Based on our experience, it almost certainly will be foggy and cold.
Exercise 10-12
For the past four years, Clifford has gone on a 100-mile bicycle ride on the Fourth of July. He has always become too exhausted to finish the entire 100 miles. He decides to try the ride once again but thinks, "Well, I probably won't finish it this year, either." How should each of the following supposi-tions affect his confidence that he won't finish this year?
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. Suppose the past rides were done in a variety of different weather conditions. . Suppose that Clifford is going to ride the same bike this year that he's rid-den in all the previous rides. . Suppose the past rides were all done on the same bike, but that bike is not the bike Clifford will ride this year. . Suppose Clifford hasn't yet decided what kind of bike to ride in this year's ride.