Exercise 2: Climate Change Solutions Simulator
Humans have been tracking global average annual temperatures since the late 1800’s. The five warmest years on record have all occurred since 2015. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the effects of climate change will vary depending on region of the globe and the ability of different societies and environmental systems to adapt to the change. If we continue on our current course of greenhouse gas emissions, it is estimated that the earth’s average annual temperature will rise between 1.1 to 5.4 ºC (2 to 9.7 ºF) in the next 80 years (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature-projections). Human interventions can reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere or can develop tools to absorb excess greenhouse gasses from our atmosphere. Can we alter our current climate change trajectory?
There are several models that can be used to estimate how human interventions can impact future climate. One of these models, En-Roads, was developed by economists at MIT to examine how different interventions may affect future climate projections.
https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/
· Go to the En-Roads Climate Change Solutions Simulator at
https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=2.7.29
6. annual temperature Without affecting any of the any of the current settings in energy supply, transport, buildings and industry, growth, land and industry emissions or carbon removal, what is the estimate given for the average increase by 2100?
7. Scroll the tab marked “Coal” to the far left, so that coal is very heavily taxed. What is the estimated temperature increase under those conditions?
8. Return the “Coal” tab to “status quo”. Scroll the tab marked “Deforestation” to the far left, so that deforestation is highly reduced. What is the estimated temperature increase under those conditions?
9. Return the “Deforestation” tab to “status quo.” Scroll the tab marked “Population” to the far right, so that human populations undergo the highest growth. What is the estimated temperature increase under those conditions?
10. The Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 was an international effort to help mitigate the effects of climate change globally. One provision agreed upon by participating nations was to develop strategies to limit average global temperature increases to 2ºC within this century. Adjust the various options in the simulator, to try to limit the temperature increase to 2ºC. What options did you change to meet this goal?
11. Note, that this simulation is only one model of how economic & policy factors can influence climate change. There are other estimates. Based on this how feasible do you think it would be to reach the 2ºC goal set by the Paris Climate Agreement? Defend your answer.
12. What do you think of this simulation? Does it make you re-think your own habits as it pertains to climate change mitigation strategies?