Environmental Hydrology 342 Final Report Fall 2012 The first hypothesis to test for your final report will relate to the physical hydrology … Formulate a hypothesis to test to answer this question:...

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Answer To: Environmental Hydrology 342 Final Report Fall 2012 The first hypothesis to test for your final...

Robert answered on Dec 21 2021
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Q1. a) Using naïve forecasting the value forecast for month 11 = 18.
b) Using the Forecasting Method that uses the aver
age of all the data available until that
period as the forecast for the next period, the forecast for month 11 = 18.8
c) The following Table shows the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) for both the forecasting methods:

Naïve
Forecast
Average
Forecast
MAD 6 3.40
MAPE 34% 18%
From the above table we can see that both MAD and MAPE are smaller in case of Average
Forecasting Method. Therefore this method has a better forecasting accuracy than the Naïve
forecast. Therefore, the Average Forecasting Method appears to provide a better forecast.
Q2. The following table shows the 2 months and 4 months Moving Average:
a.
Week
Time
Series
Value
2 week
MA
4 week
MA
1 17
2 21
3 19 21
4 23 20
5 18 21 21
6 16 20.5 20.25
7 20 17 19
8 18 18 19.25
9 22 19 18
10 20 20 19
11 15 21 20
12 22 17.5 18.75
b. Here we use Mean Squared Error (MSE) as the forecast accuracy measures. The following
table shows the MSE for all the three methods:
2 week MA 3 week MA
4 week
MA...
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