Answer To: ECON1221 – Guidelines for the research projectYour task is to find two recent (published over the...
Narasimhaswamy answered on Mar 10 2023
Article – 1
Recession in USA
Introduction:
Even the most skilled economists cannot forecast when the next recession will start with 100 percent accuracy. But it's fair to (Italy Goldstein, 2022) say that for the time being, we probably aren't in a recession.
The unemployment rate is extremely low at 3.4%, and despite a small decline in January, there are still a lot of job openings available, (Italy Goldstein, 2022) according to the most recent Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey. In addition, most Americans aren't reducing (Italy Goldstein, 2023) their purchases of both essential and optional goods and services in defiance of persistently high prices.
Consumer purchasing will decline as a result of the (Jeff Cox, 2022) Fed's need to keep raising interest rates to (Italy Goldstein, 2022) combat inflation, and businesses will be forced to lay off workers as a result of the decline in sales.
That has undoubtedly occurred in (Jeff Cox, 2022) some economic areas, including technology, media, banking, and housing. However, it appears that for the time being, these cuts are the exception rather than the norm.
Given recent remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials, it may appear that the Fed is likely to go higher given recent incoming statistics indicating inflation despite all the hikes. However, (Italy Goldstein, 2022) I do think that the Fed is concentrating too much on one issue. There (Italy Goldstein, 2022) was a noticeable decline in inflation between the first and second halves of 2022; however, this pattern started to turn negative in January of that year. However, policymakers (Italy Goldstein, 2023) shouldn't concentrate their attention on a single monthly measure. The higher inflation rates in February and March should be taken very carefully. But we can't say for sure if it will.
Recession:
The outlook for the economy and employment market has been modestly improved, and forecasters now (Jeff Cox, 2022) anticipate a recession to start later in 2023 than previously anticipated.
The National Association of Business Economics surveyed a panel of 48 forecasters from February 3 through February 10 and found that 58% of economists still think there is a greater than 50% chance (Jeff Cox, 2022) of a downturn within the next 12 months. (NABE). That percentage is essentially the same as one from a December survey.
We know this the impact of a crisis in 2023 Keep a close check on consumer spending and unemployment.
However, only 28%, versus 52% in December, believe the decline will start this quarter. Instead, 21% and 33%, (Italy Goldstein, 2022) respectively, forecast that a recession will commence in the third quarter and start in the second quarter.
Unemployment Report and Consumer Price...