During a power blackout, 100 persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph (lie-detector) test. From experience it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when...

During a power blackout, 100 persons are<br>arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a<br>polygraph (lie-detector) test. From experience it<br>is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when<br>administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable<br>when given to someone who is innocent.<br>Suppose that of the 100 persons taken into<br>custody, only 12 were actually involved in any<br>wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given<br>suspect is innocent given that the polygraph says<br>he is guilty?<br>

Extracted text: During a power blackout, 100 persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph (lie-detector) test. From experience it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when administered to a guilty suspect and 98% reliable when given to someone who is innocent. Suppose that of the 100 persons taken into custody, only 12 were actually involved in any wrongdoing. What is the probability that a given suspect is innocent given that the polygraph says he is guilty?

Jun 10, 2022

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During a power blackout, 100 persons are arrested on suspicion of looting. Each is given a polygraph (lie-detector) test. From experience it is known that the polygraph is 90% reliable when...

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