DSC 433/533 – Homework 1 Reading Background.pdf on Pilot to understand the book industry and the data. Exercises Submit answers to the following questions in Word format, as well as your Rapidminer...

case analysis


DSC 433/533 – Homework 1 Reading Background.pdf on Pilot to understand the book industry and the data. Exercises Submit answers to the following questions in Word format, as well as your Rapidminer Process (RMP) file (you can submit multiple process files). 1. In this case analysis, you need to split the data into Training, and Testing samples with 70% and 30% in each sample (Hint: use “Stratified Sampling” for the “Split Data” operator because the purchase rate is relatively low). Use the training data set only to predict whether a customer will purchase “The Art History of Florence” or not using variables M, R, F, FirstPurch, and Related Purchase. · Optimize and report the parameters for the following classifiers: decision tree, Naïve Bayesian, K-NN, and Neural Network. The parameters to be optimized are: i. Decision tree: criterion, apply prepruning ii. Naïve Bayesian: laplace correction iii. Neural network: learning rate iv. K-NN: k · Select the model for next step analysis based on ROC curve comparison. Report the ROC curves and explain the reason for your model selection. 2. Use your optimal model to predict the purchase of “The Art History of Florence”. The prediction should be made on the testing data set. · Create and report a Cumulative Gain Chart for purchases using the “create lift chart” operator from RapidMiner. Explain how many books you may sell if you send offer to 50% of the potential customers. · Create and report a Lift Chart for purchases. Explain how your model may improve the marketing campaign performance by focusing on the top 30% potential customers. (You may need to do it manually in Excel) · Assume that it costs $1.00 to send an offer to a customer, and that Charles Book Club receives $12.00 for each copy of “The Art History of Florence” purchased. (You may need to do it manually in Excel) i. Create and report a cumulative profit chart. Explain how much the profit would be by focusing on the top 30% potential customers. ii. To maximize the profit, what is the percentage of potential customers should the company send offers to? Explain your reason. iii. Given that there are 500,000 active customers in the database, how much profit can the publisher receive from this customer base based on your model? Data Mining for Business Intelligence_ Concepts, Techniques, and Applications in Microsoft Office Excel with XLMiner 2nd Edition.pdf Data (4000 cases) Seq#ID#GenderMRFFirstPurchChildBksYouthBksCookBksDoItYBksRefBksArtBksGeogBksItalCookItalAtlasItalArtFlorenceRelated PurchaseMcodeRcodeFcodeYes_FlorenceNo_Florence 12512971422201100000000054201 2290128821000000000000043201 34611382275621201011000244301 447122821200000000000051101 55112571011000000000000053101 6601145621200000000000042201 76111901611600000010000144101 87911871411410000000000044101 98112521011000000000000053101 10901240632000100000000052301 11951275242000100000000051301 121000320231800000100001151310 13103126841400000000001052110 1411201351411410000000000044101 151161213421000000000000052201 1612112561495820301121110654301 1712512261462821200101000254301 181260812212200100000000034101 19127133010103800221100000153301 20145139312115030200230001553310 21164121321200000000000051101 2216912431011000000000000053101 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