Credibility is often the most effective feature of an advertising campaign. Suppose that, for a particular advertisement, 32% of people surveyed currently believe what the ad claims. A marketing...

Credibility is often the most effective feature of an advertising campaign. Suppose that, for a particular advertisement, 32% of people surveyed currently believe what the ad claims. A marketing manager believes that for each 1-point increase in that percentage, annual sales will increase by $1 million. For each 1-point decrease, annual sales will decrease by $1 million. The manager believes that a change in the advertising approach can influence the ad’s credibility. The probability distribution of the potential percentage changes is listed here.

If for each dollar of sales the profit contribution is 10 cents and the overall cost of changing the ad is $58,000, should the ad be changed?