Consider the elicitation of the prior distribution for the upper bound as described in Sect XXXXXXXXXXSuppose further that the upper bound CV ¼ 0.3 and that the local PMF is 25,655 m3 /s. Elicit the...

Consider the elicitation of the prior distribution for the upper bound as described in Sect. 11.5.4. Suppose further that the upper bound CV ¼ 0.3 and that the local PMF is 25,655 m3 /s. Elicit the prior distribution of the upper bound based on the gamma distribution and in the following settings: (a) there is very strong evidence that the PMF will be exceeded in the future; (b) there is a very strong evidence that the PMF will not be exceeded in the future; and (c), there is no evidence regarding the probability of the PMF. Hint: for the Gamma distribution with parameters ρα and βα, the combination of equations of the method of moments results in ρα ¼ CV2. Parameter βα can be estimated by attributing a non-exceedance probability p to the current PMF estimate, that is, P α PMF ρα, βα