Consider the data given in problems 22 and 23 for TV Town. Suppose the manager of TV Town believes that the following conditional probabilities hold for the telephone survey being conducted on 30 randomly selected customers:
a. If TV Town conducts the survey, what is the optimal strategy for ordering the Panasony big-screen television sets?
b. What is the most amount of money TV Town should pay for this telephone survey?
c. What is the efficiency of the telephone survey?
d. Discuss in general terms how the results of the survey could be modified to result in improved efficiency.
22. TV Town must decide how many, if any, new Panasony 50-inch television sets to order for next month. The sets cost TV Town $1850 each and sell for $2450 each. Because Panasony is coming out with a new line of big- screen television sets in a month, any sets not sold during the month will have to be marked down to 50% of the normal retail price to be sold at the TV Town Clearance Center. TV Town estimates that if it does not have enough television sets on hand to satisfy demand, it will suffer a goodwill loss of $150 for each customer who cannot get a set. TV Town management feels that the maximum customer demand over the next month will be for three big-screen sets. Defining the states of nature to correspond to the number of sets demanded by customers and the decision alternatives to the number of sets ordered, determine the payoff table for TV Town.
23. Consider the data given in problem 22 for TV Town. Suppose the manager of TV Town estimates customer demand for next month as follows:
a. How many Panasony big-screen television sets should TV Town order?
b. The manager of TV Town is considering conducting a telephone survey of 30 randomly selected customers. The survey will determine whether at least one of the 30 is likely to buy a big-screen set within the next month. What is the maximum amount TV Town should pay for the telephone survey?