Consider the CMA scheduling situation in problem 30. Suppose Stacey would like to be relatively sure (99% sure) that the project is completed by September 1, a week before the actual reception. To meet Stacey’s goal, by what date should she begin her first meeting with Howard Klein? Be sure to take into account the variability in completion times and do not count Saturdays and Sundays {or July 4, if relevant). Count August 31 as day 1; that is, if the project took only one day it would have to start on August 31. Round up any fraction of a day to a whole day.
30. The California Medical Association (CMA) is holding a meeting at the Anaheim Hilton Hotel on September 8. On that day, the CMA will host a theme party reception for the over 2000 members and spouses who are expected to attend. Stacey Geyer is the Hilton’s convention services manager in charge of arranging the reception. Planning the meeting consists of the activities detailed in the table for problem 30:
Stacey has been able to estimate the mean and standard deviation of activities B, C, E, and F, based on her past experience. Her estimates for activities A, D, and G, however, depend somewhat on Howard Klein, the arrangements chairperson for the CMA.
At this point, Stacey has estimated that the initial planning meeting with Howard Klein will take at least two days and as many as ten days, but most likely about three days. She feels that menu planning will take between one and three days, most likely two days. In order to review the plans and charges completely, Howard Klein must check with his arrangements committee. This will most likely take about 10 days but could take anywhere from 4 to 22 days.
a. Determine the critical path, the expected completion time, and the standard deviation of the completion time of the project.
b. Analyze the effect on the expected project completion time of each of the following.
i. Activity A is delayed five days.
ii. Activity B is delayed five days.
iii. Activity D is delayed five days.
iv. Activity F is delayed five days.
v. Activities B and D are each delayed five days.
vi. Activities D and F are each delayed five days