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Class: ENVR-1301-011 LAB 8- Historical Changes in Human Population Characteristics Upload file using Microsoft word or PDF ONLY Import (copy & paste) graphs from Excel to word A. Predicting Population Growth using the Malthusian model Japan Lebanon Niger United States 1979 % Growth rate -0.1 % Growth rate 4.2 % Growth rate 4.0 % Growth rate 0.8 Year Population Population Population Population 1980 115,784,100 2,712,326 5,900,960 226,900,800 1981 115,668,315 2,826,243 6,136,998 228,716,006 1982 115,552,647 2,944,945 6,382,478 230,545,734 1983 115,437,094 3,068,633 6,637,777 232,390,100 1984 115,321,657 3,197,516 6,903,288 234,249,221 1985 115,206,336 3,331,811 7,179,420 236,123,214 1986 115,091,129 3,471,748 7,466,596 238,012,200 1987 114,976,038 3,617,561 7,765,260 239,916,298 1988 114,861,062 3,769,499 8,075,871 241,835,628 1989 114,746,201 3,927,818 8,398,906 243,770,313 1990 114,631,455 4,092,786 8,734,862 245,720,476 1991 114,516,823 4,264,683 9,084,256 247,686,239 1992 114,402,307 4,443,800 9,447,627 249,667,729 1993 114,287,904 4,630,439 9,825,532 251,665,071 1994 114,173,616 4,824,918 10,218,553 253,678,392 1995 114,059,443 5,027,564 10,627,295 255,707,819 1996 113,945,383 5,238,722 11,052,387 257,753,481 1997 113,831,438 5,458,748 11,494,482 259,815,509 1998 113,717,607 5,688,016 11,954,262 261,894,033 1999 113,603,889 5,926,912 12,432,432 263,989,186 2000 113,490,285 6,175,843 12,929,730 266,101,099 2001 113,376,795 6,435,228 13,446,919 268,229,908 2002 113,263,418 6,705,508 13,984,795 270,375,747 2003 113,150,155 6,987,139 14,544,187 272,538,753 2004 113,037,004 7,280,599 15,125,955 274,719,063 2005 112,923,967 7,586,384 15,730,993 276,916,816 2006 112,811,043 7,905,012 16,360,233 279,132,150 2007 112,698,232 8,237,023 17,014,642 281,365,208 2008 112,585,534 8,582,978 17,695,228 283,616,129 2009 112,472,949 8,943,463 18,403,037 285,885,058 2010 112,360,476 9,319,088 19,139,158 288,172,139 2011 112,248,115 9,710,490 19,904,725 290,477,516 2012 112,135,867 10,118,331 20,700,914 292,801,336 2013 112,023,731 10,543,301 21,528,950 295,143,747 2014 111,911,707 10,986,119 22,390,108 297,504,897 2015 111,799,796 11,447,536 23,285,713 299,884,936 2016 111,687,996 11,928,333 24,217,141 302,284,015 2017 111,576,308 12,429,323 25,185,827 304,702,287 2018 111,464,732 12,951,355 26,193,260 307,139,906 2019 111,353,267 13,495,311 27,240,991 309,597,025 2020 111,241,914 14,062,115 28,330,630 312,073,801 2021 111,130,672 14,652,723 29,463,855 314,570,392 2022 111,019,541 15,268,138 30,642,410 317,086,955 2023 110,908,522 15,909,400 31,868,106 319,623,650 2024 110,797,613 16,577,594 33,142,830 322,180,640 2025 110,686,815 17,273,853 34,468,544 324,758,085 2026 110,576,129 17,999,355 35,847,285 327,356,149 2027 110,465,552 18,755,328 37,281,177 329,974,999 2028 110,355,087 19,543,052 38,772,424 332,614,799 2029 110,244,732 20,363,860 40,323,321 335,275,717 2030 110,134,487 21,219,142 41,936,254 337,957,923 The above data represents the Malthusian Growth model for the country’s population based on the percentage growth rate from 1979. The following link shows the actual annual population percentages for the world from 1961 to 2019. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW In your Lab Report • Create a labeled graph of the Malthusian growth models for each country from 1980 to 2030. • Include the actual data values of the populations for 1985, 1990, 2000 & 2016 on your graph. Briefly discuss how well you believe the models simulate the populations of these countries over the 50 years of simulation. • Include some discussions of the strengths and weaknesses of using the Malthusian growth model for this simulation. Keep your responses brief and concise. • Pick one country and explain why the predicted numbers are different from the actual numbers for the period 1980 to 2019. Be specific with your response. B) Power of Pyramids - 2016 Country United States Japan Niger Lebanon Total Pop. 324,118,000 Total Pop. 126,323,000 Total Pop. 20,715,000 Total Pop. 5,988,000 Age Group %Male %Female %Male %Female %Male %Female %Male %Female 0--4 3.10% 3.00% 2.10% 2.00% 10.10% 9.50% 4.10% 4.00% 5--9 3.30% 3.10% 2.20% 2.10% 8.50% 8.10% 3.60% 3.60% 10--14 3.30% 3.10% 2.30% 2.10% 6.70% 6.40% 4.00% 4.20% 15--20 3.30% 3.10% 2.40% 2.30% 5.10% 5.10% 4.50% 4.70% 20--24 3.70% 3.50% 2.50% 2.30% 3.70% 4.00% 4.70% 5.10% 25--29 3.50% 3.40% 3.00% 2.80% 2.40% 2.60% 4.00% 4.40% 30--34 3.10% 3.10% 3.30% 3.20% 2.20% 2.20% 3.40% 3.50% 35--39 3.20% 3.20% 3.80% 3.80% 1.80% 1.80% 3.00% 2.80% 40--44 3.20% 3.10% 3.50% 3.50% 1.40% 1.50% 3.10% 2.50% 45--49 3.50% 3.50% 3.20% 3.20% 1.60% 1.20% 3.20% 2.20% 50--54 3.40% 3.50% 2.90% 3.00% 1.30% 1.00% 2.40% 1.90% 55--59 2.90% 3.10% 3.20% 3.30% 0.90% 0.70% 1.70% 1.70% 60--64 2.40% 2.70% 3.60% 3.90% 0.60% 0.60% 1.40% 1.30% 65--69 1.70% 2.00% 3.00% 3.40% 0.40% 0.40% 1.20% 1.10% 70--74 1.20% 1.40% 2.20% 2.80% 0.20% 0.20% 0.80% 0.90% 75--79 0.80% 1.10% 1.60% 2.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.50% 0.60% 80--84 0.50% 0.70% 0.90% 1.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% 85--89 0.20% 0.40% 0.30% 0.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 90--94 0.00% 0.10% 0.10% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 95--99 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% The table above represents the percentage age distribution for Japan, Lebanon, Niger, and United States. • Create a labeled graph representing the population pyramid for each country. • Based on the shape of the graph what can you infer from each country. Population pyramids can be categorized into three section • Prereproductive (ages 0-14) • Reproductive (ages 15-44) • Postreproductive (ages 45 and up) Analysis (Always answer questions using complete sentences!) 1. Determine which age group is largest in each country? For the age group chosen, give the population count for each. Show all calculations 2. How might this affect the quality of life in each country? 3. What challenges might this age distribution create for each country? http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW Grading Rubric Historical Changes in Human Population Characteristics Part A Criteria Aspect Presentation and Analysis Data Presentation ___Graph, minimum size of 12cm x 12cm, labeled ___Clear headings (Calculations, Graphs, Tables, Units) ___Titles and Heading correct on data tables ___Independent & dependent variables graphed correctly ___Actual data values (+4) Conclusion and Evaluation __ Briefly discuss how well you believe the models simulate the populations of these countries over the 50 years of simulation (+2) __ Strengths and weaknesses of using the Malthusian growth model. (+2) __ Pick one country and explain why the predicted numbers are different from the actual numbers for the period 1980 to 2019. Part B Criteria Aspect Presentation and Analysis Data Presentation ___Graph, minimum size of 12cm x 12cm, labeled (+4) ___Clear headings and titles on Graphs (+4) ___Clear Titles and Heading correct on data tables (+4) ___Independent & dependent variables graphed correctly (+4) ___Data values for age structure (+4) Conclusion and Evaluation __Based on the shape of the graph what can you infer from each country. (+4) __Which age group is largest in each country? (+4) __For the age group chosen give the population count for each. (+4) __Show all calculations (+4) __How might this affect the quality of life in each country? (+4) __What challenges might this age distribution create for each country? (+4) LOSS of Points for Format and Technical Criteria ___ Headings and titles missing from graph ___ Axis not labeled ___ Incomplete sentences ___ Turned in late (-20%) per day 57