Lecture 5 Imbalances and Rebalancing 2020/8/12 1 Contents • Signs of imbalances and subsequent rebalancing • Structural change and its implications • Shares of labor income • National savings • Global...

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China's economic imbalances and rebalancing


Lecture 5 Imbalances and Rebalancing 2020/8/12 1 Contents • Signs of imbalances and subsequent rebalancing • Structural change and its implications • Shares of labor income • National savings • Global imbalances 2020/8/12 2 1. Signs of imbalances and subsequent rebalancing • Balanced growth path: – Rate of growth is constant – Shares of labor and capital income in national income are constant – The interest rate is constant – The saving rate is constant – …… – In sum, all the economic indicators grow by constant rates 8/12/20 3 China’s growth puzzles before 2010 • Puzzle 1: Why had the share of labor and household income declined when the economy experienced high growth? – What is the purpose of economic growth? • Puzzle 2: Why had the national savings increased so fast? – Household saving rate had increased; – Corporate savings had increased faster; – Government saving rate was high. • Puzzle 3: Why had the capital-output ratio increased dramatically? – Declining capital efficiency? • Puzzle 4: Why did China export capital while domestic capital returns were high? 2020/8/12 4 Rebalancing after 2010 • The share of labor/household income has increased • The share of consumption has increased and the national saving rate has declined • Current account surplus has become small relative to GDP 2020/8/12 5 2. Structural change • What is structural change? – Moving labor from lower- productivity sectors to higher productivity sectors; – Urbanization; – Change of sectoral structure: the “hump” of industry • Structural change brings growth – It is cost-free growth 2020/8/12 6 0. 0 0. 2 0. 4 0. 6 0. 8 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year The Primary Sector The Secondary Sector The Tertiary Sector Structural change in the US Source: Mao and Yao (2012). China’s structural change 2020/8/12 7 Source: www.stats.gov.cn . Shares in GDP % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 19 53 19 55 19 57 19 59 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 Sh ar e in G D P (% ) Primary Secondary Tertiary http://www.stats.gov.cn/ Industrial share of employment seems to have reached the peak 2020/8/12 8 Source: www.stats.gov.cn . 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 19 53 19 55 19 57 19 59 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 Sh ar e in e m pl oy m en t ( % ) Primary Secondary Tertiary http://www.stats.gov.cn/ A comparison with Korea • Korea – Manufacturing employment was peaked at 30%; – Per-capita GDP reached 12000 dollars (2005 PPP) • Thus – China’s per-capita GDP in 2010 was 10500 dollars (2005 PPP) – Manufacturing employment would peak around 2017-2018. – But the financial crisis seems to have accelerated the pace. 2020/8/12 9 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year The primary sector The secondary sector The tertiary sector 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Source: Mao and Yao (2012). After deindustrialization begins … • Changes in the direction of labor movement – From agriculture and industry to services – As a result, economic growth will decelerate • Rely on endogenously generated consumption • Tech progress in services is slow • Domestic consumption will increase – More non-tradable products • Pollution and emission will decline – Structural change in the industrial sector • Share of heavy industry declines 2020/8/12 10 3. Changes of labor income and their causes 2020/8/12 11 Source: Flow of Funds Table. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Composition of national income share of labor share of profits share of taxes Share of hh income in national income 2020/8/12 12Source: Flow of Funds Table, National Bureau of Statistics. Notes: Gov. income does not include corporate and personal income tax. Initial distribution of income 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% household government Corporate Same trends for disposable income 2020/8/12 13 Source: Flow of Funds Table, National Bureau of Statistics. Notes: Gov. disposable income = gov. initial income + net personal and corporate income taxes + net transfers from abroad. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 Composition of Disposable Income Residents Government Corporate Causes • Double transition before 2010 – Enterprise profits increase fast: product and most input prices are determined by international markets; labor costs increase slowly; land prices are low. – Consumption of entrepreneurs is limited. • Receding – Decline of demographic dividends – Slowdown of rural-urban migration 2020/8/12 14 Double transition: the logic Expansion of trade + low wage rate High profit rates Capital becomes relatively cheaper More investment (capital deepening) Labor productivity increases Expansion of trade + higher shares of capital returns 2020/8/12 15 Tremendous growth of labor productivity in the manufacturing sector 2020/8/12 16 Source: 卢锋、刘鎏,“我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较”, 《经济学季刊》,2007, Vol. 6, No. 2: 357-380. (卢锋、杨业伟更新) 图2、中国制造业劳动生产率增长 (1978-2009) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 累 计 增 长 (1 97 8= 10 0) -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 年 增 长 率 (% ) 累积增长 年增长率 Reasonable increase in the service sector 2020/8/12 Source: 卢锋、刘鎏,“我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较”, 《经济学季刊》,2007, Vol. 6, No. 2: 357-380. (卢锋、杨业伟更新) 图3、中国第三产业劳动生产率 (1978-2008) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 累 计 增 长 (1 97 8= 10 0) -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 年 度 增 长 (% ) 累计增长 年度增长 • 1991-2009: Manufacturing labor prod. grew by 12.3% per annum (Prof. Lu Feng) 2020/8/12 18 Source: The Conference Board. “Long-term wage trends in China.” 2010. A simple calculation • Value-added: Y = AL (A:labor productivity; L:labor) • Total payroll: W = wL (w:wage rate) • Profit: P = Y -W = (1 – w/A)AL • Labor income in GDP:w/A • Profit in GDP:1 - w/A • If labor productivity increases faster than wage rate, – Labor share in GDP decreases; – Profit share in GDP increases. 2020/8/12 19 Structural change: the smiling curve of labor share • Manufacturing has the highest capital intensity, so labor share is the lowest. As a result, labor share in national income exhibits a U curve. 2020/8/12 20 Per-capita income Labor share Theoretical modeling 8/12/20 21 Labor share: Beijing Labor share: the nation Source: 刘亚琳、茅锐、姚洋(2018). 4. National savings • Consumption: – Purchases or uses that cannot form or add to assets that produce future income • Savings:Current income - consumption • National savings: – Residential:Residential disposable income - consumption – Corporate:Profits - dividends – Government:Government regular revenue – government regular expenditure • Housing – New housing is counted as investment 2020/8/12 22 Government savings • Regular revenue=Taxes+asset income (including surrendered SOE profits)+transfers from families and abroad (Regular budgetary income in Chinese statistics) • Regular expenditure=consumption (such as salaries, good and service purchases) +transfers (including subsidies to enterprises and transfers to families and foreigners) +interest payments of government bonds • Government bonds themselves are neither regular revenue, nor regular expenditure 2020/8/12 23百度百科:http://baike.baidu.com/view/4438450.htm http://baike.baidu.com/view/4438450.htm An example • Assumptions: – Regular budgetary income is 10 tril. yuan; – The government issues 1 tril. Yuan of government bonds. – Regular expenditure is 8 tril. Yuan – Government investment is 3 tril. Yuan. • Therefore, – Government savings are 10 – 8 = 2 tril. Yuan – Government budget deficit is 11 – 10 = 1 tril. Yuan. 2020/8/12 24 National savings vs. several other concepts • National savings • It is a concept of national income accounting, corresponding to real output • Bank deposits – It is not all national savings because it includes the loans obtained by units and individuals • M2 – It includes national savings, but not all of it is savings, and not all savings are in M2 – It is proportional to the stock of a country’s nominal wealth 2020/8/12 25 Year 2010 was a turning point 2020/8/12 26Source: China Statistical Yearbook. -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Composition of GDP expenditure Consumption Capital formation Net export % It is mainly the change of household consumption 10:36 27Source: The Flow of Funds Table. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 share of residential consumption share of government consumption Export-led growth, demographic dividends, structural change and domestic consumption • Export-led growth – High growth of export coupled by favorable demography led to fast accumulation of savings – Exit from this growth model restored domestic consumption • Structural change – The decline of the share of industry and the rise of services led to higher hh income and thus higher shares of domestic consumption 2020/8/12 28 The experiences of Japan and Korea 2020/8/12 29 Source:蔡昉,“关于结构调整的国际经验。”《比较》,第51辑, 2011年。 Composition of national savings 2020/8/12 30 Source: The Flow of Funds Table. Shares of GDP 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Answered Same DayOct 07, 2021

Answer To: Lecture 5 Imbalances and Rebalancing 2020/8/12 1 Contents • Signs of imbalances and subsequent...

Komalavalli answered on Oct 20 2021
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Title: China's economic imbalances and rebalancing
Contents
Contents
Introduction    3
Literature Review    6
Analysis on China Economic Imbalance and Rebalance    11
Growth rate of China in percentage    11
Export as percent of GDP    12
Import as percent of GDP    12
China’s Current account Imbalances    13
National Savings Rate as percentage of GDP in 2017    14
China’s External and internal Imbalances    15
China switching from investment to consumption    16
China Credit growth from 2008 to 2019    19
Conclusion    19
Works Cited    20
Introduction
The problem of world imbalances is an essential global task to worldwide financial governance because it affects international monetary stability. It becomes probable and crucial hassle even before the outbreak of World War 1. Global imbalances describe the state of affairs in which some international locations acquire present day acco
unt surpluses at the expense of other countries, which ran deficits, because of the interdependence of nations of the world. All different matters being identical, the contemporary account deficit of a rustic shows the extra of the United States’s total home investments in capital items over general domestic financial savings. This shortfall can simplest be included with overseas capital inflows to the extent that countries with contemporary account surpluses are prepared to offer loans. The deficits of debtor international locations are consequently the surpluses of lender countries who've cutting-edge account surpluses and vice versa. It's far however exciting that growing countries have as an alternative provided the surpluses of overdue and no longer the industrialized international locations.
A balanced economic system indicates that economic increase is sustainable within the long-time period, and the economy is also growing across unique sectors and now not focused on one particular industry or area. A balanced economic system has several key capabilities they are Low inflation keeps the nation away from an unsustainable boom and bust length of monetary growth. Balance between saving and consumptions: An unbalanced economy could devour an excessive % of income. A greater balanced economic system could be saving a giant percent of income to finance funding and destiny effective potential. Without enough savings and investment, long-time period increase can be restricted. Balance of trade indicates the balanced economy could have a stability between exports and imports a low (or as a minimum sustainable) current account deficit. If the economy is relying on imports which indicate a nation is suffering from current account deficit, this is a sign of imbalance in a country. A massive current account deficit would need to be financed by using capital inflows.
Housing market that is stable: A stable housing marketplace enables to balance the economy. A speedy upward push in house costs may want to reason a positive wealth impact and a temporary upward thrust in spending which later proves unsustainable. A booming housing marketplace raises worry price could fall in future. Sustainable financial institution lending: A balanced economy wishes a robust and solid finance sector. Corporations need get admission to to credit score, but not like the credit score crunch, the financial institution lending wishes to be sustainable and no longer dependent on different bank loans.
Growth throughout extraordinary sectors: An economy counting on the number one area for boom is extra vulnerable to fluctuating commodity fees. An economy reliant on growth in best services can also conflict to gain sufficient export revenues. Equality of distribution: Boom calmly dispensed throughout earnings spectrums and throughout different geographical areas. Sustainable tiers of debt: If monetary increase is financed by way of debt, then this growth may additionally prove unsustainable, and it could simplest show brief.
To understand the economic imbalance of a country let us assume a nation is closed economy which indicates there is no trade with other countries. In this closed economy a certain quantity of the entire profits is spent straight away (through families and companies) and a positive quantity is stored (with the aid of households and corporations). The savings are commonly held inner monetary establishments who lend out the savings to individuals who want to borrow to invest (in new factories, new homes, anything), the borrowers pay a fee for the mortgage (interest) and some of this is surpassed onto the savers. In a balanced closed economy the entire income not being spent, the national savings are all loaned for funding. There are no idle wasted financial savings. The economic system is running at full ability and developing as fast as it is capable of doing due to the fact all of the savings are being spent on investments.
Now recall a closed economic system that isn't always balanced. In this situation not all the saving is invested, there may be a surplus of savings. That situation is just like the state of affairs defined earlier in which everyone stuffs money beneath their mattress. Due to the imbalance, which is an excessive amount of national savings and too little country wide funding, there's a brief fall in the demand for goods. Corporations go through, factories near, workers are made unemployed and the financial system shrinks. That’s one way that an imbalance caused by an excessive amount of savings may be fixed, by means of shrinking the economy and making masses of people unemployed.
It is very essential to remember the fact that country wide savings aren't the result of variations in country wide man or woman or reflections of an impudent or prudent subculture. This indicates information the distinction between countrywide and household savings. Note that i'm the usage of mainstream terms which include ‘financial savings’ however in a Marxist subculture countrywide financial savings would be known as the countrywide surplus.
Household financial savings represent the amount out of family earnings that a household chooses no longer to consume, and so it may be tormented by cultural factors including cultures that cost prudence, however the charge of household savings is likewise suffering from non-cultural elements including demographics (whether a population is growing older and therefore more likely to save for retirement), the lifestyles and credibility of a social protection net, the sophistication of purchaser finance, and so forth.
The country wide rate of savings, however, consists of no longer just family savings additionally the financial savings of governments and groups. Its miles defined in reality as a country’s GDP much less its general intake. Whilst the household savings charge can be decided in element through the cultural possibilities of ordinary families, the country wide savings rate isn't always. The national financial savings fee is determined in the main through economic guidelines and financial establishments, and its miles those elements and not country wide lifestyle that determines the percentage of household profits inside the whole economic system. Country wide financial savings, in other phrases, more often than not have very little to do with family preferences and much more to do with the effect of specific economic rules. Sometimes we will see polices that determine a country’s savings rate can be made in a foreign country. Let us analysis about the China’s economic imbalances and rebalancing
Literature Review
Lin and Wang (2016) this paper focused on analyzing the imbalance of trade between China and US. It investigates how China's comparative advantage within the labor-extensive manufacturing activities, combined with the global manufacturing sharing across economies with China as the meeting hub, works because the essential supply of the increasing bilateral change imbalances among US and China through empirical methods. They determined that the value-introduced content material of U.S exports to China is excessive, which implies that the imbalances in the gross cost of change flows between the U.S. And China were overstated the real change imbalances that might have asymmetric impacts on economic results of two trading partners.
Similarly, China imports massive amount of intermediate items from South Korea and Taiwan. But, with easy processing in China, those products are exported to US and different economies. The East Asian economies are traditionally the major source of US's trade deficits and provider of labor-intensive manufacturing, consumer goods to the US due to the differences in comparative advantages between US and East Asian economies.
The relocation of labor-intensive manufacturing from other East Asian economies to China in a flying-geese pattern due to changing comparative advantages and the global production sharing contribute to the meteoric rise of China-US trade imbalances in the last three decades, Even though the weight of China's contribution to US's trade deficit increased sharply after the 1990s, the contribution of East Asian economies as a group to US trade decit in fact declined in the same...
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