Case study: Ferrari, the 2015 Initial Public Offering
Using the information on the case study linked above (PDF attached), you are requested to answer the following questions (Q1, 3 and 4 should take no more than 1 page):
1. What type of IPO is Ferrari and how is it conducted? (Hint: Ferrari used ADRs to list on the NYSE. You should explain what ADRs are and how they work) (10 marks)
2. Use the information about comparables as well as the
forecasted Cash Flow
to estimate a possible price for Ferrari shares,
explaining clearly your steps.
Do you see any limitation in conducting a comparable analysis? How does your price estimate compare with the price range set by the company and its underwriters? (60 marks)
3. Comment on the IPO performance at the opening of the trading specifically relating to the course content. (15 marks)
4. Finally, compare your forecast of cashflow with the actual ones achieved by Ferrari and relate it to its most recent stock price performance. (15 marks)
Ferrari: The 2015 Initial Public Offering E du ca tio na l m at er ia l s up pl ie d by T he C as e C en tre C op yr ig ht e nc od ed A 76 H M -J U J9 K -P JM N 9I UVA-F-1775 Rev. Apr. 14, 2017 This case was prepared by Michael J. Schill, Professor of Business Administration, and Jenny Craddock, Senior Case Writer. It was written as a basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright 2017 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. To order copies, send an e-mail to
[email protected]. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation. Ferrari: The 2015 Initial Public Offering The Ferrari is a dream—people dream of owning this special vehicle, and for most people it will remain a dream apart from those lucky few. -Enzo Ferrari, Founder, Ferrari It was October 20, 2015, the day before what was anticipated to be the first day of public trading for the stock of legendary Italian sports car company Ferrari NV (Ferrari). Sergio Marchionne, chairman of Ferrari and CEO of its parent company, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA), had announced a year previously that FCA would be spinning off Ferrari into a separately traded company. As an independent company, the shares of Ferrari (under the aptly named ticker symbol RACE) would be listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), with an eventual listing in Milan. Marchionne’s plan was to sell 10% of Ferrari’s shares in an initial public offering (IPO), and the money raised in the offering would go to FCA. The worth of the Ferrari shares had been the subject of fierce debate among analysts and investors, especially after FCA set an initial price range of USD48 to USD52 per share in early October.1 Following the road-show meetings with potential investors in both Europe and the United States, Marchionne knew there was strong demand for the 17.175 million shares that would be offered for sale in the IPO. If the offer price was set too low, FCA would leave money on the table, which suggested pricing the deal at the top of the initial range or beyond. However, if the offer price was set too high, poor first-day trading returns would sour the investor’s initial experience with the company. It was time now for Marchionne—in negotiation with lead bank UBS—to set the price at which the company’s IPO shares would be offered to investors that evening. Ferrari—A Background2 The history of Ferrari, the business, was inextricably linked to Ferrari, the man. Enzo Ferrari, born to a lower-middle-class family in Modena, Italy, in 1898, felt a powerful draw to racing from a young age. He moved to Turin to work for Fiat after the First World War only to have his application hurtfully rejected. He eventually landed an assistant job at a new automobile manufacturer nearby, and it was there that he competed in his first race in 1919. Despite his passion for racing, he was not immediately successful; he finished fourth. Enzo Ferrari 1 USD = U.S. dollars, EUR= euros. 2 The background on Ferrari is partially drawn from Drew D. Johnson, ed., International Directory of Company Histories: Volume 146 (Detroit: St James Press, 2013). Thomas Derdak, “Ferrari S.p.A,” pp 140–146. Distributed by The Case Centre North America Rest of the world www.thecasecentre.org t +1 781 239 5884 t +44 (0)1234 750903 All rights reserved f +1 781 239 5885 f +44 (0)1234 751125 e
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[email protected] case centre U sa ge p er m itt ed o nl y w ith in th es e pa ra m et er s ot he rw is e co nt ac t i nf o@ th ec as ec en tre .o rg Ta ug ht b y S on ia F al co ni er i, fro m 2 7- N ov -2 02 0 to 2 7- M ay -2 02 1. O rd er re f F 40 00 69 . P ur ch as ed fo r u se o n th e S M M 73 1 C or po ra te F in an ce , a t C as s B us in es s S ch oo l. mailto:
[email protected] E du ca tio na l m at er ia l s up pl ie d by T he C as e C en tre C op yr ig ht e nc od ed A 76 H M -J U J9 K -P JM N 9I Page 2 UVA-F-1775 joined the team of racecar maker Alfa Romeo as a test driver, and his role soon grew to include racing Alfa Romeos on behalf of the company and selling cars to wealthy clients around northern Italy. Over the years, he raced his way to multiple victories and built a large dealership from which he sold and serviced Alfa cars. In the late 1920s, Alfa Romeo encountered financial difficulties and shut down its involvement in the racing circuit. Unable to be around cars and not race them, Enzo Ferrari founded his own racing scuderia (“stable” or “team”) in 1929—Scuderia Ferrari. Over the ensuing years he continued to run both his dealership and Scuderia Ferrari (which Alfa Romeo frequently used to represent the company at races). Alfa Romeo eventually bought 80% of Scuderia Ferrari and returned the management of the racing program to company headquarters. Following the acquisition, Enzo Ferrari realized that he would never achieve his ambition of running Alfa Romeo’s racing program and left the company in 1939 after two decades of service. The parting agreement forbade him from racing or using the name Scuderia Ferrari for the next four years, so he returned to one of his old scuderia buildings in Modena the next year and established his own manufacturing firm while waiting out the racing ban. However, with Italy’s involvement in the Second World War, Mussolini’s fascist government forced Enzo Ferrari to focus his manufacturing operation on building aircraft engines for the war rather than cars. When Allied forces bombed the factory, Enzo Ferrari moved his operations from Modena to Maranello. After the war, Enzo Ferrari debuted his first Ferrari racecar, which quickly won a high-profile race in Turin in front of Italy’s elite. Before long, members of European society were contacting Ferrari for cars of their own. The following year Ferrari’s car designers finished a nonracing road car. During the following decade these handmade cars, produced in batches of 10, became the prize of every car enthusiast in Europe and North America, with a client list including kings, princes, and members of America’s wealthiest families. Despite his commercial business success, Enzo Ferrari’s single focus continued to be racing. Throughout the 1950s and 1960s, he used the profits from his sports car sales to fund competition in Grand Prix and Formula 1 races. Enzo Ferrari was so present on the racing circuit that he became Italy’s national symbol of motor racing. His negligence toward road car production (and the ensuing design and production flaws) became evident, and Ferrari sales declined throughout the 1960s. Refusing to cut costs and miss races, Enzo Ferrari sought external funds to keep the company afloat. He went to Fiat for help, an ironic turn following his longtime disdain for Fiat. In 1969, Fiat purchased 50% of Ferrari shares and took control of all road car production. Ferrari retained ownership in the remaining 50% and continued to manage the racing operation. Fiat’s efforts to modernize the factory and update the manufacturing process paid off, and by 1980, annual road car production reached 2,000, more than double what it had been prior to Fiat’s involvement. At the time of Enzo Ferrari’s death in 1988, Fiat’s stake in Ferrari was 90%, with the remaining 10% held by the Ferrari family. Ferrari—The Car Business After Ferrari’s death, his namesake company entered a period of aimlessness and decline—annual sales consisted of only 2,000 cars in the early 1990s. In 1992, Fiat hired Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, a marketing maven who had once worked as both an assistant to Enzo Ferrari and later as the Ferrari team leader, as chairman of Ferrari. Montezemolo wasted no time in making sweeping changes at the automaker. The product line grew from two outdated models to nine new ones and a commitment to engineering excellence was instilled. A key aspect of Montezemolo’s quality and branding strategy over the period from 1992 to 2014 involved holding production volumes below demand in order to instill a perception of exclusivity. In 2014, for example, U sa ge p er m itt ed o nl y w ith in th es e pa ra m et er s ot he rw is e co nt ac t i nf o@ th ec as ec en tre .o rg Ta ug ht b y S on ia F al co ni er i, fro m 2 7- N ov -2 02 0 to 2 7- M ay -2 02 1. O rd er re f F 40 00 69 . P ur ch as ed fo r u se o n th e S M M 73 1 C or po ra te F in an ce , a t C as s B us in es s S ch oo l. E du ca tio na l m at er ia l s up pl ie d by T he C as e C en tre C