California is going to be one of the best test cases for evaluating “what works” in early release programs. Due to mandatory minimum sentencing, return to prison for technical violations of parole,...

California is going to be one of the best test cases for evaluating “what works” in early release programs. Due to mandatory minimum sentencing, return to prison for technical violations of parole, and tough “three-strikes” laws, California locked up more people per capital than any other state. However, a 2009 U.S. Supreme Court decision mandated that California reduce the inmate population of its severely overcrowded prison system. As a result California had adopted a number of strategies to reduce its prison population, including early release programs. The state will release thousands of inmates early, reduce new admissions due to technical parole violations, and has scaled back its “three-strikes” law. The state has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into drug rehabilitation, anti-truancy efforts, and mental health treatment. Law enforcement predicted that crime would rise and recidivism rates increase. As of year’s-end 2015, these predictions have proven to be wrong. Statewide crime rates did not rise significantly. More interesting is the fact that the recidivism rate for inmates granted early release was 5% compared to the state average of 42%.³¹
As California releases thousands of inmates early, what will be the key to keeping the crime rate from rising?