(Based on an actual court case in Philadelphia.) In the 1994 congressional election, the Republican candidate outpolled the Democratic candidate by 400 votes (excluding absentee ballots). The...

(Based on an actual court case in Philadelphia.) In the 1994 congressional election, the Republican candidate outpolled the Democratic candidate by 400 votes (excluding absentee ballots). The Democratic candidate outpolled the Republican candidate by 500 absentee votes.


The Republican candidate sued (and won), claiming that vote fraud must have played a role in the absentee ballot count. The Republican’s lawyer ran a regression to predict (based on past elections) how the absentee ballot margin could be predicted from the votes tabulated on voting machines. Selected results are given in the file P16_56.xlsx. Show how this regression could be used by the Republican to support his claim of vote fraud. (Hint: Does the 1994 observation fall outside the general pattern? That is, in statistical terms, is it an outlier?)