Assume the annual numbers of tornados occurring in a particular county is well-described by the Poisson distribution. After observing two tornados in this county during 10 years, a Bayesian analysis...

Assume the annual numbers of tornados occurring in a particular county is well-described by the Poisson distribution. After observing two tornados in this county during 10 years, a Bayesian analysis yields a posterior distribution for the Poisson rate that is a gamma distribution, with

a⁰
= 3.5 and b⁰
= 0.05.

a. What was the prior distribution?

b. What is the probability of the county experiencing at least one tornado next year?